Every month, I'll provide you with an update on my portfolio, including all of the transactions, the current allocation, and my buy list. In addition, I'll share a recap of the articles you may have missed from the previous month.

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Microsoft (MSFT)

I added to my Microsoft position, as flagged in last month’s review. At the time, the stock was trading at 21x forward earnings, which felt reasonable for a business of this quality.

The company reported FY26 Q3 earnings this week and continues to execute. Revenue grew 18% to $82.9 billion, while net income increased 20% to $31.8 billion.

Uber (UBER)

I added to Uber following its new partnership with Expedia, which allows users to book hotels directly within the app. Over time, this will expand to more than 700,000 properties globally.

Uber One members will earn 10% back in credits on bookings and receive at least 20% off a rolling list of 10,000+ hotels. Vacation rentals from Vrbo will be added later this year, with plans to expand beyond the U.S.

Uber is steadily evolving into a super app, and ironically delivering on much of what Airbnb has long promised. Execution has been strong, and Dara Khosrowshahi continues to stand out as one of the top operators:

“We’re all living through a moment of real cognitive overload: too many apps, too many decisions, too much noise. At the end of the day, our job is to help people reclaim their time, spending less of it managing the logistics of life and more of it actually living.”

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Allocation

I’ve been using Portseido to track my portfolio for years, and I highly recommend it. It consolidates all my transactions in one place, while its data visualisation and analytics capabilities guide my future decision-making and, ultimately, enhance my returns.

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Buy List

Meta (META)

Meta sold off 8% despite what I view as very strong earnings. Revenue grew 33% to $56.3 billion, and operating income increased 30% to $22.9 billion.

At this scale, that level of growth is remarkable. The key driver is AI. Ad impressions rose 19%, while the average price per ad increased 12%.

Meta’s ad engine has become highly effective, allowing it to serve more ads while also improving performance for advertisers. As a result, businesses are willing to pay more.

Importantly, Meta’s ads don’t feel like a tax on the platform, unlike what you might see on Amazon or Google. They are embedded within the content experience. In many cases, users don’t even realise they’re viewing an ad, and that integration should continue to improve.

Nubank (NU)

Nu will report earnings later this month, which I’m looking forward to.

A company growing revenue and EPS north of 30% would typically command a premium multiple. Yet NU trades at just 16x forward earnings.

While that may look elevated relative to traditional banks, NU operates in a different category. Incumbents tend to grow at single digits and carry heavier cost structures, whereas NU is digitally native.

Viewed as a high-growth platform business, the current valuation looks compelling.

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In Case You Missed It

Some of the articles you might have missed during the past month:

Final Words

A relatively quiet month in terms of activity. I deployed the remainder of my cash position after holding a modest balance during the recent portfolio consolidation.

A softer Q1 created several opportunities, which I took advantage of. The portfolio is now fully invested once again.

If you'd like to support the work of an independent analyst, you can buy me a coffee. The proceeds will contribute to covering the annual running costs of the newsletter.

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Wolf of Harcourt Street

Contact me

Twitter: @wolfofharcourt

Email: wolfofharcourtstreet@gmail.com

Every month, I'll provide you with an update on my portfolio, including all of the transactions, the current allocation, and my buy list. In addition, I'll share a recap of the articles you may have missed from the previous month.

10 AI-proof SaaS Stocks for 2026

Meta once dropped 70%. Netflix: 50%. Amazon: 40%. Every investor had ruled them out, citing “the companies were done”.

But they all rebounded - Meta: 690%. Netflix: 540%. Amazon: 153%.

Every world-class company suffers deep drawdowns. Rebound Capital identifies high-quality companies undergoing drawdowns to capitalize on their eventual rebound.

Just last year, they identified ASML (up 58%), Google (up 40%), and AMD (up 61%) as ideal rebound prospects.

And now, SaaS is in peak pessimism due to AI-led disruption.

Rebound Capital has identified 10 AI-proof SaaS companies with deep moats in steep drawdowns.

Wolf of Harcourt Street readers can now unlock their exclusive 24-page AI-proof stock report for free!

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Evolution (EVO)

I sold my full position in EVO, which was just over 3% of the portfolio at the time of sale. This is a decision I had been sitting on for some time, as the thesis had broken down and my conviction had been fading. When the market presented more attractive opportunities elsewhere, I finally decided to act.

Before moving on, it’s important to go through the post-mortem. When I first published the EVO investment thesis in October 2023, the bull case felt almost self-evident. A business with 70% EBITDA margins, 26% revenue growth, durable network effects, and a near-unassailable position in live casino. It looked like a company you could hold for a decade.

The bull case rested on three pillars:

1. Structural moats. EVO’s advantage came from switching costs embedded in operator relationships, the network effects of the world’s largest live dealer studio network, and IP that competitors had repeatedly failed to replicate at scale.

2. Market growth as a tailwind. The global iGaming market was projected to grow from ~$73 billion in 2023 to over $127 billion by 2027. As the dominant B2B infrastructure layer, EVO was positioned to grow at least in line with the market and historically had grown well ahead of it.

3. Margin durability. A fixed-cost studio model with significant scalability meant each incremental game round carried extraordinary operating leverage. The margin profile was a feature of the business model.

None of these have disappeared entirely. But Q4 again showed that the growth engine has stalled, and in ways that aren’t easily reversed.

Europe is the problem that won’t go away. Channelisation is working against EVO. Ring-fencing measures across key European markets are shrinking the addressable pool, and management gave no credible timeline for reversal. This has been a headwind for several quarters.

Asia has a similar issue, but with a different root cause. Cybercrime, specifically the hijacking of Evolution’s video streams, has been a known issue since 2024. I gave management the benefit of the doubt when they described it as solvable. Twelve months later, the answer on the Q4 call was effectively “slow, methodical progress.”

Meanwhile, the growth that does exist in North America (+9%) and Latin America (+12%) comes with an important caveat. Combined, these regions still represent just over half of Asia’s revenue alone. Even at double-digit growth rates, they cannot offset the structural decline in EVO’s core markets within a reasonable time horizon.

There was one line in the Q4 earnings call that stood out. When asked what it would take for financial performance to finally match operational progress, CEO Martin Carlesund replied: “Just a stable environment. No more, no less.”

That was the tell. When a company’s re-acceleration depends primarily on external circumstances rather than controllable execution, the investment changes. You are no longer underwriting a business, you are underwriting a macro bet on regulatory stability in Europe and law enforcement effectiveness in Asia.

That is not the original thesis.

EVO remains a high-quality operator and will likely continue to generate significant cash and return it to shareholders. But the original thesis assumed double-digit growth with stable margins. Those assumptions are no longer valid, not in Europe, not in Asia, and not at a pace that the Americas can offset. For full transparency, I sold the entire position for an overall 41% loss.

Mercado Libre (MELI)

The capital freed up from EVO found a natural home. As I referenced in last month’s portfolio review, MELI sold off after Q4 2025 earnings on margin concerns. Operating margin compressed to 10% as the company leaned into fulfilment infrastructure, free shipping, and AI tooling across the platform.

I have seen this movie before with MELI: deliberate investment cycles that look like deterioration but turn out to be the foundation for the next leg of growth. When a business is growing revenue at 45%, adding 16 million new buyers in a single quarter, and building an advertising business growing 67%, a near-term margin dip is not a thesis breaker, it is the price of admission. The add was straightforward.

Adyen (ADYEN)

Adyen’s H2 2025 results were solid. Net revenue grew 21% on a constant currency basis, EBITDA grew 23%, and margin expanded to 55%, yet the market punished the stock by nearly 19%. The culprit was processed volume.

Full-year TPV grew just 8% versus 33% in 2024, with the Digital segment contracting 1% in H2, mainly due to the off-boarding of low-margin Cash App revenue. Currency headwinds and softer volumes from APAC-based merchants exposed to US tariff uncertainty also had a negative impact.

The market saw volume deceleration and sold first. I read it differently. Unified Commerce and Platform, the two segments that reflect Adyen’s strategic direction and long-term wallet share, both grew. EBITDA margin hit 53% for the full year, up from prior periods.

The land-and-expand model is working. Existing customers are expanding across geographies and sales channels, India is emerging as a meaningful new market, and embedded financial products, issuing, capital, and bank accounts, are inflecting. Management guided 20–22% net revenue growth for 2026 on a constant currency basis, underpinned by detailed customer conversations rather than top-down aspiration.

A forward EV/EBITDA of 11 on a business with >50% EBITDA margins, a clean balance sheet, and a durable competitive position in enterprise payments looks like an opportunity to me. I added accordingly.

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Allocation

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Performance

• Q1: -13.2% vs. S&P -4.6%

Top Contributors YTD:

1. INPST: +43%

2. ASML: +25%

3. NIO: +18%

Largest Detractors:

1. RBRK: -40%

2. SE: -39%

3. ADYEN: -37%

4. MSFT: -27%

5. V: -15%

Buy List

Microsoft (MSFT)

Microsoft is on the buy list for one reason above all others: Azure. During Q2 FY26, Azure grew 39%, with Q3 guided to 37–38%.

What makes the current setup interesting is valuation. Microsoft is trading at approximately 21x forward earnings, well below its five-year average of ~33x. A business compounding operating income at 21%, with Azure re-accelerating and a 47% operating margin, does not often trade at 21x earnings.

The bear case centres on CapEx, and it is a fair concern. Capital intensity is running at historically high levels as Microsoft builds infrastructure to meet backlog demand. But this is the same debate investors had when Amazon was pouring cash into AWS in its early years. Microsoft is now at its lowest earnings multiple since 2017. Even during the pandemic, the stock did not fall this low.

Visa (V)

I recently came across the Death by Claude tool, a SaaSpocalypse survival scanner, and it had this to say about Visa:

“Visa will be processing the payment for your funeral, your grandchildren's funerals, and the funerals of whatever sentient species replaces us. They survived the internet, crypto, Apple Pay, and now they'll survive Claude. They literally just sit between money and collect a toll - they're the final boss of capitalism."

Visa is probably one of the highest quality businesses in the world and is now trading close to the low end of its 10-year valuation range.

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In Case You Missed It

Some of the articles you might have missed during the past month:

Final Words

The decision to sell EVO had been made some time ago, but I acted on it this month to free up cash and deploy it into what I believe are more attractive opportunities.

From a performance perspective, this was an ugly quarter and the worst for the portfolio since Q2 2022. From a concentration perspective, the portfolio is now down to 14 positions, which I am comfortable with. There are many opportunities in the market at the moment, both within the portfolio and on the watch list.

I deployed the majority of the EVO proceeds but still have almost 1% in cash. While tensions in the Middle East are having very real impacts on lives and markets, these periods often create some of the best opportunities in equities.

If you'd like to support the work of an independent analyst, you can buy me a coffee. The proceeds will contribute to covering the annual running costs of the newsletter.

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Wolf of Harcourt Street

Contact me

Twitter: @wolfofharcourt

Email: wolfofharcourtstreet@gmail.com

Every month, I'll provide you with an update on my portfolio, including all of the transactions, the current allocation, and my buy list. In addition, I'll share a recap of the articles you may have missed from the previous month.

Top 10 Rebound Stocks for 2026

Meta once dropped 70%. Netflix: 50%. Amazon: 40%. Every investor had ruled them out, citing “the companies were done”.

But they all rebounded - Meta: 690%. Netflix: 540%. Amazon: 153%.

Every world-class company suffers deep drawdowns. Rebound Capital identifies high-quality companies undergoing drawdowns to capitalize on their eventual rebound.

Just last year, they identified ASML (up 58%), Google (up 40%), and AMD (up 61%) as ideal rebound prospects. The Wolf of Harcourt Street readers can now unlock their exclusive 25-page report on the top 10 rebound opportunities for 2026 for free!

Download the 2026 Report [Free]

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Sea Limited (SE)

I executed the buy decision in SE that I flagged in last month’s portfolio review. The stock continues to face pressure, despite being largely insulated from the AI disruption narrative. However, the underlying fundamentals remain as strong as ever.

Even more compelling, this growth business now trades at just 25 times forward earnings.

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Allocation

I’ve been using Portseido to track my portfolio for years, and I highly recommend it. It consolidates all my transactions in one place, while its data visualisation and analytics capabilities guide my future decision-making and, ultimately, enhance my returns.

Sign up using my affiliate link here.

Buy List

Mercado Libre (MELI)

My largest holding reported earnings this week and delivered another exceptional quarter, with revenue growing 45% year over year and comfortably beating expectations.

Long term readers will know that MELI does not issue guidance. As a result, Wall Street analysts have a poor track record forecasting its results. This quarter was no different. Earnings per share came in below estimates because management chose to invest aggressively for long term growth at the expense of short term profitability.

That is exactly what you want to see.

When a business has a vast market opportunity and a long reinvestment runway, it should be reinvesting as much as possible. I repeat this every quarter, but the message remains the same. The key performance indicators continue to validate the strategy, and I will be looking to make my largest position even larger.

Nubank (NU)

NU also reported a strong quarter and, similarly, was punished by the market. Revenue beat estimates, with growth accelerating for the third consecutive quarter, marking the fastest growth rate since Q1 2024.

Despite its scale, NU continues to add roughly 4 million customers per quarter. Most of that growth still comes from Brazil, even though Mexico and Colombia are growing faster on a relative basis.

Importantly, nearly half of NU’s customer base joined within the past three years. Even so, average revenue per active customer, ARPAC, reached a record $15. That is already 19 times its cost to serve, before considering increased wallet share and monetisation as cohorts mature.

Customers who have been with NU for eight years generate ARPAC of $30.20. As the newer cohorts age, ARPAC should naturally expand.

In a previous article, I modelled a credible path for NU to triple revenue by 2030 from its existing customer base alone. That thesis is steadily playing out. I recommend revisiting that piece if you missed it.

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In Case You Missed It

Some of the articles you might have missed during the past month:

Final Words

Investing is often described as an art rather than a science. Nothing captures that better than the discipline of doing nothing.

The past month has been highly volatile, particularly across technology, software, and payments. Yet it has been one of my least active months in some time. That has been intentional. I avoid emotional decisions and prefer to let the dust settle before acting.

I am currently contemplating two potential sales:

Evolution (EVO)
The company reported another disappointing quarter. It was a humbling reminder that situations can deteriorate further than expected.

As I acknowledged in my 2025 Annual Report, holding despite clear fundamental decline has been one of my larger mistakes. My conviction has faded. It is now a question of when, not if, I sell.

InPost (INPST)
Earlier this month, an offer was tabled to take INPST private at €15.60 per share. If completed, this would be deeply disappointing. It would mark the second time the company has gone private, and in both cases minority shareholders would bear the cost.

CEO Rafal Brzoska would see his ownership increase from 13% to 16%, which speaks to where incentives lie. Leverage has been cited as the rationale, but the alignment is clear.

With the current share price around €15.20, the remaining upside is roughly 2.5%. This could ultimately become a forced sale outside my control.

If you'd like to support the work of an independent analyst, you can buy me a coffee. The proceeds will contribute to covering the annual running costs of the newsletter.

Buy me a coffee

Join the community of informed investors – subscribe now to receive the latest content straight to your inbox each week and never miss out on valuable investment insights.

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The Chat is a space designed to facilitate, real-time discussions, share knowledge and debate ideas with fellow investors. Join the conversation.

If you found today's edition helpful, please consider sharing it with your friends and colleagues on social media or via email. Your support helps to continue to provide this newsletter for FREE!

Share

Happy investing

Wolf of Harcourt Street

Contact me

Twitter: @wolfofharcourt

Email: wolfofharcourtstreet@gmail.com

Every month, I'll provide you with an update on my portfolio, including all of the transactions, the current allocation, and my buy list. In addition, I'll share a recap of the articles you may have missed from the previous month.

Top 10 Rebound Stocks for 2026

Meta once dropped 70%. Netflix: 50%. Amazon: 40%. Every investor had ruled them out, citing “the companies were done”.

But they all rebounded - Meta: 690%. Netflix: 540%. Amazon: 153%.

Every world-class company suffers deep drawdowns. Rebound Capital identifies high-quality companies undergoing drawdowns to capitalize on their eventual rebound.

Just last year, they identified ASML (up 58%), Google (up 40%), and AMD (up 61%) as ideal rebound prospects. The Wolf of Harcourt Street readers can now unlock their exclusive 25-page report on the top 10 rebound opportunities for 2026 for free!

Download the 2026 Report [Free]

Transactions

Microsoft (MSFT)

I finally added to my MSFT position for the first time since 2022. MSFT is one of the anchors of my portfolio but is currently materially underweight.

In the past, I have been too greedy waiting for a lower multiple. The stock recently fell to ~24x forward earnings, which I believe is very reasonable for a business that can continue to grow earnings at double digit rates for at least another decade, supported by powerful secular tailwinds in cloud and AI.

Rubrik (RBRK)

Rubrik was a new addition to the portfolio in 2025 and, in my view, offers a compelling opportunity below $60.

At $56, an inverse DCF implies ~19% annual growth over the next decade. I believe this is entirely reasonable given Rubrik is currently growing revenue by ~50%, even allowing for a deceleration into the ~30% range in coming years. On top of that, the business should benefit from meaningful operating leverage, with expanding free cash flow margins as it scales and matures.

The stock has been under pressure over the past couple of months, largely due to the broader “AI disrupts SaaS” narrative. However, cybersecurity is one of the most insulated areas of SaaS. Backup relies on immutable, offsite, air gapped copies, making third party platforms a necessity for security and compliance.

Backup is subtractive risk management, requiring independence. AI tools are additive. Even with internal AI solutions, enterprises still need trusted third party backup providers, which is exactly what RBRK offers. Importantly, RBRK integrates AI and machine learning for threat detection without introducing substitution risk.

Visa (V)

Last month, I added to Visa and noted the following:

“I added to my position in Visa for the second month in a row. Paying 25x forward earnings for a business of this quality feels very reasonable. The multiple has already expanded to almost 28x in a relatively short period.

With stable, high quality businesses like this, I try to add near the lower end of their historical valuation range. Sometimes there is no need to overcomplicate things.”

The exact same logic applied again this month.

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Allocation

I’ve been using Portseido to track my portfolio for years, and I highly recommend it. It consolidates all my transactions in one place, while its data visualisation and analytics capabilities guide my future decision-making and, ultimately, enhance my returns.

Sign up using my affiliate link here.

Buy List

Adyen (ADYEN)

Payments has been under pressure over the past few months and Adyen has not been immune. The stock is down ~15% over the past three weeks, yet nothing has fundamentally changed.

I built the majority of my position in 2023 when the stock was cut in half and traded below €700. At that point, the forward EV/EBITDA multiple fell to ~16x. Enterprise Value is the appropriate metric for Adyen given the large amount of cash it holds on behalf of merchants.

While the share price is almost double today, the multiple has once again compressed below 20x for the first time since. This is a high quality business and, at this valuation, I believe it offers an attractive opportunity. I continue to expect >20% top line growth over the next three to five years.

Sea Limited (SE)

It has been a tough three to four months for Sea Limited, with the stock down almost 40% since October 2025.

Fundamentally, little has changed. Sea continues to fire on all cylinders, as shown in its most recent Q3 earnings report towards the end of 2025. I have nothing further to add here that I have not already written, but I would draw your attention to this excellent piece from , which aligns closely with my own view.

The current drawdown appears driven far more by sentiment than fundamentals

GabGrowth

Why I’m Not Worried About $SE Sea Limited’s 38% Drawdown

Sea Limited is in a 38% drawdown from its most recent high in September 2025…

Read more

3 months ago · 32 likes · 2 comments · GabGrowth

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In Case You Missed It

Some of the articles you might have missed during the past month:

Final Words

The portfolio got off to a very strong start to the year, reaching a new all time high. Interestingly, beneath the surface, several themes have been getting hammered, particularly enterprise SaaS and payments.

On one end, ASML and INPST are both up ~30% year to date. On the other, RBRK and MSFT are already down double digits.

This is a great example of how sector diversification creates opportunity. Readers will know that I was buying ASML and INPST throughout 2025 when they were widely disliked. Now that they are back in favour, I am doing nothing.

Conversely, RBRK and MSFT are currently out of favour, and I am buying. There will almost always be one or two sectors under pressure at any given time. That is typically when I aim to do the majority of my buying.

If you'd like to support the work of an independent analyst, you can buy me a coffee. The proceeds will contribute to covering the annual running costs of the newsletter.

Buy me a coffee

Join the community of informed investors – subscribe now to receive the latest content straight to your inbox each week and never miss out on valuable investment insights.

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The Chat is a space designed to facilitate, real-time discussions, share knowledge and debate ideas with fellow investors. Join the conversation.

If you found today's edition helpful, please consider sharing it with your friends and colleagues on social media or via email. Your support helps to continue to provide this newsletter for FREE!

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Happy investing

Wolf of Harcourt Street

Contact me

Twitter: @wolfofharcourt

Email: wolfofharcourtstreet@gmail.com

Overall, I am satisfied with the result. Since the 2022 bear market, the portfolio has generated returns of 34%, 15%, and 16% over the past three years. Since inception, the portfolio has achieved a 16% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR), comfortably above my long-term target of 10%.

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Portfolio Turnover

I started 2025 with 18 positions and ended the year with 15, achieving a long-standing goal of consolidating the portfolio. This was accomplished by closing five positions and initiating two new ones.

The new additions were Rubrik (RBRK) and ASML (ASML). I exited PayPal (PYPL), Airbnb (ABNB), Auto Partner (APR.WA), Home Depot (HD), and Texas Instruments (TXN). The rationale behind each transaction has been covered in prior monthly portfolio reviews, so I will not repeat it here.

The chart above is from Portseido’s new Year in Review feature. It highlights that my five most sold positions were the five I fully exited, while the most bought positions include the two new additions.

I’ve been using Portseido to track my portfolio for years, and I highly recommend it. It consolidates all my transactions in one place, while its data visualisation and analytics capabilities guide my future decision-making and, ultimately, enhance my returns.

Sign up using my affiliate link here.

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Contributors and Detractors

The top-performing stocks in 2025 were:

• Nu (NU) +62%

• ASML (ASML) +55%

• Uber (UBER) +35%

• AbbVie (ABBV) +33%

• NIO (NIO) +17%

Notably, NIO was my worst-performing stock in 2024, down 52%, yet became a top contributor in 2025, albeit still well below its 2024 price. Meanwhile, NU, which was among the strongest performers in 2024, continued its momentum. Some winners kept winning, while certain beaten-down stocks proved to be somewhat oversold.

The worst-performing stock was InPost (INPST), down 37%, followed by Evolution (EVO), down 23%. All other holdings posted positive returns.

Evolution’s struggles extended into a second consecutive year. After being one of the weakest performers in 2024, it again disappointed in 2025. Put simply, shareholders have endured two years of deeply underwhelming performance.

Looking ahead to 2026, InPost appears best positioned for a turnaround. At the time of writing, the stock is already up 30% year to date. Unlike Evolution, InPost’s weakness in 2025 was driven more by narrative than by deterioration in the underlying business. The recent takeover approach caused the share price to surge, validating my view that its valuation made it an obvious target. My preference remains that any offer is rejected, as an acquisition would remove what I believe could be more than a decade of compounding returns for long-term shareholders.

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Dividends Received

Dividends received in 2025 declined 9% year over year, reflecting my continued focus on total return rather than dividend optimisation. Of the five positions sold in 2025, three were dividend payers with yields between 1% and 3%. These were not replaced, as Rubrik pays no dividend and ASML’s yield remains well below 1%.

This was partially offset by strong dividend increases from Visa (+14%), Microsoft (+10%), and AbbVie (+6%). Dividends are pooled with cash contributions and reinvested opportunistically.

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Fees

I track fees as a percentage of new deposits, as this best reflects the drag on compounding regardless of portfolio size. The calculation is straightforward, total annual fees divided by total cash deposits.

After a sharp increase in 2023 following DEGIRO’s fee hikes, I made a concerted effort to reduce this ratio. I subsequently opened Trade Republic and Interactive Brokers accounts, both of which offer significantly lower fee structures.

As a result, I am pleased to report that fees as a percentage of new deposits fell again in 2025 to 0.55%. Driving this figure as close to zero as possible remains a priority.

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Newsletter Performance

2025 was a solid year for the newsletter, with a net increase of 2,223 subscribers, bringing the total to 9,329. Growth would have been higher had I not conducted a clean-up in June, removing subscribers who had not opened an email or read on the app in the previous twelve months.

Total subscribers is a vanity metric. I would much rather have an engaged readership, so this clean-up will become a recurring exercise.

Growth was also slower than in 2024 due to reduced activity in Q4 while I took an extended travel break. While the newsletter prioritises quality over quantity, the data is clear, more frequent publishing drives faster subscriber growth.

The audience continues to become increasingly global, with subscribers now spanning 134 countries.

The most popular posts in 2025 were:

1. Rubrik Quick Pitch - 10.4k views

2. Shopee’s Dominance in Southeast Asia’s E-Commerce Market - 10.4k views

3. Portfolio Review - November 2025 - 10.4k views

4. Evolution: Trading Margin for Certainty - 10.3k views

5. NU: Hidden Pressures Under the Hood - 9.9k views

An underrated aspect of the archive is the longevity of evergreen content. The Nu Holdings Investment Thesis remains the most-read post of all time, with over 18k views.

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Lessons Learned

1. Buy and Continuously Verify

One of my better decisions in 2025 was exiting Auto Partner in July after reviewing its Q1 earnings. It became clear that the original thesis was no longer playing out due to:

• Stagnating revenue growth

• Gross margins reverting after a period of inflation-driven over-earning

• Margin pressure from minimum wage increases

I concluded that these trends were likely to worsen before improving, and I could no longer say with confidence that the company would return to high-teens revenue growth or restore net margins to 2021 levels. Since the sale, margins have continued to deteriorate and the stock was down a further 25% at one point.

I would reconsider the stock if revenue growth reaccelerates decisively into the mid-teens and there is clear evidence of renewed operating leverage, potentially driven by the new distribution centre. At the time, I did not expect either catalyst before mid-2026.

This reinforced a key lesson, it is better to wait for evidence of reacceleration than to rely on hope.

2. Be More Ruthless

The most common investing mistake is selling winners too early. My issue is the opposite, I often hold underperformers for too long.

Evolution is a clear example. Had I applied the same discipline used with Auto Partner, I would have sold when the business first began to stall. Instead, I assumed the weakness was temporary. Over time, it became clear that the problems were structural, not cyclical, and the stock was punished accordingly.

The correct approach would have been to sell, continue monitoring the company, and wait for proof of a turnaround. Today, I am stuck in no-man’s land. The valuation is undemanding, but there is no evidence (yet) that management can fix the issues or reaccelerate growth.

With the portfolio now concentrated at 15 positions, the performance bar is higher. Entry and continued inclusion must be earned. There is little point in active monitoring if I am unwilling to act when evidence contradicts my thesis.

3. Valuation is Relative to Duration

Arguably, the most profitable decision of 2025 was initiating and building a position in ASML below €700. The biggest gains in high quality investing are often made when the market mistakes a temporary cyclical headwind for a permanent structural decline. Buying ASML at 25x forward earnings established a valuation floor for a business with an extraordinary competitive moat. The catalyst was not just earnings growth, it was effectively buying a call option on the market’s eventual return to reality.

The real alpha sits in the gap between a pessimistic multiple (25x) and a justified multiple (40x). When you buy quality at a fair price, you get paid twice. First, through growth in the underlying earnings power of the business. Second, through the market’s willingness to pay more for each euro of those earnings. Success requires the discipline to ignore macro noise and the patience to wait for the inevitable re rating.

When a company with 100% market share in a mission critical technology like EUV sells off due to macro uncertainty or a lack of 18 month forward guidance, the risk is rarely in the business itself. More often, it lies in the investor’s timeframe. By focusing on ASML’s €33 billion order backlog, driven by multi billion dollar fab builds from TSMC, Intel, and Samsung, and the structural necessity of High NA EUV for the next generation of semiconductors, it was clear the trough reflected a temporary accounting reality.

I did not need to predict which AI chip would win. I only needed to know that whoever did would have to pay the ASML tax to manufacture it.

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That’s it for 2025. Now on to 2026.

Thank you for your continued support and engagement. A newsletter is only as strong as its readership, and I am genuinely grateful to have you on this journey. Wishing you a healthy and profitable 2026.

If you'd like to support the work of an independent analyst, you can buy me a coffee. The proceeds will contribute to covering the annual running costs of the newsletter.

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Happy investing

Wolf of Harcourt Street

Contact me

Twitter: @wolfofharcourt

Email: wolfofharcourtstreet@gmail.com

Every month, I'll provide you with an update on my portfolio, including all of the transactions, the current allocation, and my buy list. In addition, I'll share a recap of the articles you may have missed from the previous month.

The best opportunities exist in uncertain times.

Meta once dropped 70%. Netflix: 50%. Amazon:40%. Every investor had ruled them out, citing “the companies were done”.

But they all rebounded - Meta: 690%. Netflix: 540%. Amazon: 153%.

Every world-class company suffers deep drawdowns. Rebound Capital identifies high-quality companies undergoing drawdowns to capitalise on their eventual rebound. It’s a contrarian philosophy so precise that even Michael Burry is a subscriber.

In the last few months, they have identified ASML (up 33%), Google (up 52%), and AMD (up 61%) as ideal rebound prospects. Subscribe today to unlock their exclusive End of the Year Offer.

Subscribe to Rebound Capital

Transactions

Visa (V)

I added to my position in Visa for the second month in a row. Paying 25x forward earnings for a business of this quality feels very reasonable. The multiple has already expanded to almost 28x in a relatively short period.

With stable, high quality businesses like this, I try to add near the lower end of their historical valuation range. Sometimes there is no need to overcomplicate things.

Uber (UBER)

I went a step further with Uber and added to my position for the third consecutive month.

For much of 2025, I regretted the size of my initial position, which I opened in December 2024 shortly before the stock moved sharply higher. While Uber is now in a roughly 20% drawdown over the past two months, the fundamentals remain as strong as ever.

The narrative that autonomous vehicles pose an existential threat to Uber has resurfaced, and this is where my view diverges from the market. I believe autonomous vehicles will evolve into a highly fragmented market with multiple winners rather than a single dominant player. In that scenario, Uber is well positioned to leverage its global distribution network and infrastructure.

We saw further evidence of this fragmentation recently, as Baidu announced plans to launch driverless taxi trials in the UK next year in partnership with Uber and Lyft. As part of the agreement, Baidu’s Apollo Go RT6 vehicles will join the London networks of both platforms in 2026. This marks the first direct competition between U.S. and Chinese autonomous players in a European capital, following Waymo’s recent supervised testing in the city.

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Allocation

I’ve been using Portseido to track my portfolio for years, and I highly recommend it. It consolidates all my transactions in one place, while its data visualisation and analytics capabilities guide my future decision-making and, ultimately, enhance my returns.

Sign up using my affiliate link here.

Performance

• Q4: -6.0% vs. S&P +3.1%

• YTD: +16.0% vs. S&P +17.2%

Top Contributors YTD:

1. NU: +63%

2. ASML: +54%

3. UBER: +36%

4. ABBV: +29%

5. NIO: +26%

Largest Detractors:

1. INPST: -28%

2. EVO: -11%

Buy List

Microsoft (MSFT)

I highlighted Microsoft last month but did not take action, as I felt Visa and Uber offered more attractive opportunities at the time.

Microsoft continues to trade at around 29x forward earnings, a level that has historically provided reasonable entry points since the stock re rated higher. I remain underweight Microsoft in the portfolio despite significant appreciation from my original cost basis, and it is a name I am watching closely as we head into 2026.

Sea Limited (SE)

2025 has been a rollercoaster year for Sea Limited. At one point in September, the stock was up 85% YTD. At the time of writing, it sits in a 33% drawdown, yet still shows gains of 22% for the year, comfortably outperforming the broader market.

I believe SE is one of the more compelling opportunities within the existing portfolio. The company delivered strong revenue growth and meaningful margin expansion in 2025, with all three business segments accelerating key performance indicators.

The metric that stood out most to me was Sales and Marketing efficiency. Historically, SE was often criticised for subsidising growth, with incremental S&M spend exceeding incremental revenue. Over the past five quarters, that dynamic has flipped decisively.

In Q3 alone, SE invested an additional $141 million in S&M and generated $727 million in incremental revenue, a roughly 5x return on investment. When I see a business with a reinvestment runway like this, I want management to reinvest aggressively.

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In Case You Missed It

Some of the articles you might have missed during the past month:

Final Words

From both a portfolio management and newsletter perspective, I was less active in Q4 as I spent much of the period travelling. As an active investor, I view this as an important part of my long term process.

While investing is highly enjoyable, it can also be mentally draining. Stepping away to recharge is not optional, burnout is real, and if left unaddressed it eventually catches up with you. To finish first, you must first finish.

From a performance standpoint, Q4 was a weaker quarter, especially compared to the exceptionally strong start to the year. At the end of Q3, the portfolio was on track for returns of 23%, but we ultimately finished the year at 16%.

Investing is all about expectations. If you had told me at the end of Q3 that I would finish the year at 16%, I would have been a little disappointed. But if you had told me in January that I would deliver that return after 34% in 2023 and 16% in 2024, I would have taken it without hesitation.

Looking ahead to 2026, I continue to believe that some of the best opportunities in the market are already among the portfolio’s largest positions, particularly SE and MELI.

As always, I will share the Annual Report in January, with deeper insights into the portfolio and reflections on the year. In the meantime, readers can revisit the 2024 Annual Report.

If you'd like to support the work of an independent analyst, you can buy me a coffee. The proceeds will contribute to covering the annual running costs of the newsletter.

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Happy investing

Wolf of Harcourt Street

Contact me

Twitter: @wolfofharcourt

Email: wolfofharcourtstreet@gmail.com

Every month, I'll provide you with an update on my portfolio, including all of the transactions, the current allocation, and my buy list. In addition, I'll share a recap of the articles you may have missed from the previous month.

Be greedy when others are fearful.

Meta once dropped 70%. Netflix: 50%. Amazon:40%. Every investor had ruled them out, citing “the companies were done”.

But they all rebounded - Meta: 690%. Netflix: 540%. Amazon: 153%.

Every world-class company suffers deep drawdowns. Rebound Capital identifies high-quality companies undergoing drawdowns to capitalise on their eventual rebound.

In the last few months, they have identified ASML (up 23%), Google (up 52%), and AMD (up 61%) as ideal rebound prospects. Subscribe today to unlock their exclusive Black Friday offer.

Subscribe to Rebound Capital

Transactions

Visa (V)

I added to my position, as flagged in last month’s Buy List. Nothing complicated here. Visa remains a proven long term compounder and the mid 20s forward earnings multiple is reasonable for a business of this quality.

Uber (UBER)

I increased my position after the stock sold off alongside the broader market this month. Earlier in the month, Uber delivered another strong quarter with acceleration across all key operating metrics.

Charts tell the story better than words. As you can see from the visuals, the business is performing exceptionally well and the thesis is unfolding exactly as expected.

Sea Limited (SE)

I added to my SE position following another exceptional quarter. Despite a strong revenue beat, the stock fell 8% due to an EPS miss. When a company is growing at this pace, you actually want it to reinvest as much profit as possible into future opportunities.

Even with heavy investment, SE still posted a healthy 8% operating margin, which shows it is scaling in a sustainable way. A few standout highlights from the quarter:

GMV growth continues with no signs of slowing.

Monee remains the fastest growing segment.

Garena QPUs accelerated and reached their largest cohort since Q4 2021.

Revenue growth has exceeded 30% for five consecutive quarters.

Sales and Marketing efficiency hit new highs, with an extra $141 million driving $727 million in incremental revenue, a 5x ROI.

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Allocation

I’ve been using Portseido to track my portfolio for years, and I highly recommend it. It consolidates all my transactions in one place, while its data visualisation and analytics capabilities guide my future decision-making and, ultimately, enhance my returns.

From 26 November to 1 December, Portseido are offering a huge Black Friday sale with up to 40% off for new customers for three months.

Sign up using my affiliate link here.

Buy List

Microsoft (MSFT)

Microsoft is the longest held position in my portfolio and one of my largest winners. I have not added since May 2022. The stock still is not cheap, but it now trades below 30 times forward earnings, which has historically been a good entry zone since the multiple rerated.

Given the position is only 5% of the portfolio, and much of that weight is due to price appreciation rather than capital invested, I would like to increase it.

Meta (META)

If Microsoft might still look a little expensive, Meta appears far more reasonable at roughly 22 times forward earnings.

Much of the debate around Meta concerns its CapEx and whether the returns will justify such eye watering investment. CapEx has risen from about $2 billion ten years ago to over $62 billion in 2025, with even higher expected in 2026. Yet over the same period, Meta’s return on invested capital has tripled from 8% to almost 23%. Few, if any, would have predicted this a decade ago.

I cannot say exactly how the future will play out, but Mark Zuckerberg remains one of the strongest founder CEOs in the industry. He has better visibility into potential and early returns than any outside observer. Meta’s revenue acceleration in recent quarters is no coincidence and is clearly being supported by these investments.

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In Case You Missed It

Some of the articles you might have missed during the past month:

Final Words

I have been less active on the newsletter this month as I have been travelling in Japan. It is my first time here and it has been an incredible experience. The people are respectful and polite, the food is fresh and affordable and the public transport system is unlike anything I have seen elsewhere. It is also a great time to visit with a relatively weak yen.

Trips like this remind me of my why. I invest to buy back time. Being able to take trips like this while I am still (relatively) young and healthy, rather than waiting until formal retirement, matters a lot to me. Without my investment portfolio, I would be more constrained by an employer and might not have the flexibility to travel like this.

Keeping your why front and centre helps maintain discipline and a long term mindset, especially when markets get noisy.

What is your why?

If you'd like to support the work of an independent analyst, you can buy me a coffee. The proceeds will contribute to covering the annual running costs of the newsletter.

Buy me a coffee

Join the community of informed investors – subscribe now to receive the latest content straight to your inbox each week and never miss out on valuable investment insights.

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If you found today's edition helpful, please consider sharing it with your friends and colleagues on social media or via email. Your support helps to continue to provide this newsletter for FREE!

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Happy investing

Wolf of Harcourt Street

Contact me

Twitter: @wolfofharcourt

Email: wolfofharcourtstreet@gmail.com

Every month, I'll provide you with an update on my portfolio, including all of the transactions, the current allocation, and my buy list. In addition, I'll share a recap of the articles you may have missed from the previous month.

House Keeping

1. Thank you to everyone who completed the subscriber survey a couple of weeks ago. The responses were excellent and gave valuable insight and feedback on the newsletter. Congrats to Rafa who won a copy of Morgan Housel’s new book, The Art of Spending Money.

2. Due to personal circumstances (all good), newsletter editions will be less frequent between now and Christmas. I still plan to publish a couple of articles during this period, but I want to give everyone advance notice. The subscriber chat will remain active and is a great place to engage with the community.

Now, on with the show.

Be greedy when others are fearful.

Ask yourself this…

Would you rather have bought Meta shares for $378 in September 2021 or $90 in November 2022? Both purchases would have seen tremendous growth.

A $1,000 investment in September 2021 would be worth $2,014 today. But a $1,000 purchase when Meta pulled back in November 2022 would be worth $8,300.

Sometimes it can pay to wait for a pullback. Rebound Capital identifies high-quality companies undergoing drawdowns to capitalise on their eventual rebound. In the last few months, they have identified ASML (up 23%), Google (up 52%), and AMD (up 61%) as ideal rebound prospects.

Subscribe to Rebound Capital

Transactions

Mercado Libre (MELI)

I added to MELI after a sell off driven by perceived negative news:

• Brazil: Amazon made its most aggressive move in Brazil since entering the market. From Sept 30 to Dec 3, during Black Friday season, it reset all storage and shipping fees for Fulfillment by Amazon. In short, joining Amazon Marketplace is practically free. We have seen this play before and history shows it takes much more than free shipping to topple MELI’s dominance.

• Argentina: There was fear that President Javier Milei’s party would lose the midterms after losing the Buenos Aires provincial election the prior month. Milei’s party is pro-capitalism and a loss was viewed as negative for MELI. This did not materialise and Milei’s party won.

Earlier this week MELI reported another exceptional quarter. Revenue grew 39%, marking the 27th consecutive quarter above 30%, which is nearly seven years. The story was familiar, MELI beat on revenue and missed on earnings because the company continues to prioritise growth and long-term dominance over near-term profitability.

One example is expanding free shipping, which is core to their long-term strategy. In Brazil the free shipping threshold was reduced from R$79 to R$19 and GMV is already up 36%. Unique buyers grew 29% year on year, the fastest pace since Q1 2021 and the largest quarterly increase ever, surpassing the pandemic peak. Sold items in Brazil rose 42%.

This remains my largest position and the one I have the most conviction in. Even though it is already significantly sized, I prioritise adding during periods of weakness over adding to any other holding

Rubrik (RBRK)

I continued to accumulate Rubrik under $80. As a new position, I want to build it quickly at these levels. Key developments this month:

• The Asahi ransomware attack underlined Rubrik’s relevance. A week later Asahi systems were still down and beer was shipping manually. Rubrik’s immutable backups, recovery, and anomaly detection could have limited damage and restored operations within hours.

• South Korea has had a major cyber incident every month this year. In one case the government lost all data because servers were in one single location with no backups. This is exactly the problem Rubrik solves and the need grows as data volumes increase.

• Chinese hackers breached US cyber firm F5. When even defenders are hit it shows breaches are inevitable and resilience matters.

• Launched Rubrik Agent Cloud, the first product designed to monitor, govern, and remediate AI agents.

• Named a leader in IDC MarketScape for worldwide cyber recovery, which adds external validation.

  

Uber (UBER)

I added to Uber after a 10% pullback earlier this month. I want this to be a much larger position. The pitch at $60 dollars in December was a fat one, so I have been buying above $90 into strength because I still believe it is undervalued. My valuation work from earlier this year pointed to a fair value near $115.

Uber continues to execute well with several positive developments this month:

• Launched JourneyTV Presents, an in-ride entertainment platform with content partners including Time Out. Uber Advertising has strong appeal because it holds high-intent data, it knows where users are and where they are going.

• Acquired Segments.ai to strengthen self-driving through better labelled data. Data quality is a key edge in the autonomy race.

• Signed a long-term partnership with Riyadh Air to integrate Uber services into the airline’s app and loyalty experience.

• Began piloting digital tasks in the United States. Select drivers can earn by completing tasks such as uploading photos to train AI models or submitting multilingual documents. This was already tested in India.

• Partnered with Nvidia to scale a level-4-ready mobility network. Stellantis will deliver at least 5,000 Nvidia-powered L4 vehicles to Uber. Uber will run fleet operations and customer support.

Texas Instruments (TXN)

I sold my full TXN position, which was 2.5% of the portfolio. I shared a full writeup already, but in short it does not fit my investment philosophy. The business and industry are highly cyclical, and I do not believe I can forecast them with confidence. I recorded a 20% profit, but returns were much lower than expected because the earnings trough lasted longer than anticipated. Cyclical industries are hard to value and time, and predictability is often worth paying for.

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Allocation

I’ve been using Portseido to track my portfolio for years, and I highly recommend it. It consolidates all my transactions in one place, while its data visualisation and analytics capabilities guide my future decision-making and, ultimately, enhance my returns. Sign up using my affiliate link here.

Buy List

Visa (V)

Visa stays on my buy list from last month. It delivered another dependable quarter with double-digit growth in revenue, earnings and dividends.

It is one of those true sleep-well stocks thanks to low emotional volatility (looking at you Evolution). At 26x forward earnings, the valuation is reasonable for a business of this quality and reliability.

Uber (UBER)

I am careful not to get price-anchored with Uber. It is still undervalued in my view despite the rally this year. At a 4% position there is scope to increase it materially. I will wait for next week’s Q3 earnings before acting.

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In Case You Missed It

Some of the articles you might have missed during the past month:

Final Words

This was a very active month. I sold one more position and have now hit the 15-position portfolio I have been working toward for over a year. Long-time readers know this concentration was deliberate and methodical. I was not selling for the sake of it, I was waiting for sound reasons to emerge.
Managing fewer positions has been mentally liberating.

I do not rule out further consolidation where the original thesis has broken or is materially different today. Evolution is one such example, though I am not rushing. The Q3 earnings and thoughtful community commentary have given me plenty to consider.

Even after adding to three positions, I ended the month with 4.5% cash, unchanged from last month. With two months left in 2025, I think the portfolio is positioned for a strong finish. Let’s see if Mr Market agrees.

If you'd like to support the work of an independent analyst, you can buy me a coffee. The proceeds will contribute to covering the annual running costs of the newsletter.

Buy me a coffee

Join the community of informed investors – subscribe now to receive the latest content straight to your inbox each week and never miss out on valuable investment insights.

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The Chat is a space designed to facilitate, real-time discussions, share knowledge and debate ideas with fellow investors. Join the conversation.

If you found today's edition helpful, please consider sharing it with your friends and colleagues on social media or via email. Your support helps to continue to provide this newsletter for FREE!

Share

Happy investing

Wolf of Harcourt Street

Contact me

Twitter: @wolfofharcourt

Email: wolfofharcourtstreet@gmail.com

Every month, I'll provide you with an update on my portfolio, including all of the transactions, the current allocation, and my buy list. In addition, I'll share a recap of the articles you may have missed from the previous month.

The best opportunities exist in uncertain times.

Apple once fell 83%. Amazon, 90%. Netflix, 74%. Even the greatest companies face brutal drawdowns.

Rebound Capital finds those moments, identifying high-quality businesses poised for a comeback. In just the last 3 months, they flagged:

• ASML, now up 23%

• Google, now up 52%

• AMD, now up 19%

Wolf of Harcourt Street readers get an exclusive 20% discount on a Rebound Capital subscription, but only if you join in the next 24 hours.

Subscribe to Rebound Capital

Transactions

InPost (INPST)

I added to my position after the stock dropped 13% following its Q2 earnings report. I shared a full analysis below, but in summary: the company reported solid results. The market reacted negatively because INPST prioritised strategic investment for future dominance, primarily front-loaded integration costs from the Yodel acquisition, which came at the expense of near-term profit and resulted in weaker net earnings despite beating on revenue.

Since earnings, INPST has continued executing on UK expansion with two notable partnerships:

• 536 Aldi stores now feature INPST parcel lockers (with a target of 600+ by year-end).

• UK Post Office trial: pick-up and drop-off lockers at hundreds of branches. If successful, INPST could tap into the full 15,000-branch network, a potential game changer for density.

Mercado Libre (MELI)

I added to my position after the stock sold off indiscriminately with all Argentinian ADRs following the Buenos Aires provincial election, where President Milei’s party was defeated. The national election is this month. Milei’s party is pro-capitalism, which can be viewed as a positive for MELI.

That said, he has been in power for 2 years, while MELI has been around for 25. Political shifts that may harm the entire market will hit sub-scale players more than MELI. If you listened to the recent climbers & scalers podcast with MELI’s founders, you know this company is built to thrive during adversity. You can read my key insights below.

Execution highlights this month:

• Mercado Pago hits 1M POS terminals in Mexico (doubling since Sept 2024). Its network now rivals the entire traditional banking ecosystem (1.4M terminals), driving inclusion in a country where ~40% remain unbanked.

• Launched Mercado Libre Negocios, a wholesale platform for entrepreneurs, companies, and governments to buy in bulk with ease, security, and better pricing.

• Launched Dr. Virtual in Argentina, a new digital health service offering unlimited 24/7 tele-consultations and access to specialists like psychologists, nutritionists, and dermatologists, all from your phone.

• Acquired Brazilian firm Nikos, allowing Pago to structure and distribute fixed-income securities, funds, and third-party products while growing AUM. This is its first acquisition in Brazil and marks a shift from its usual build-in-house approach.

Rubrik (RBRK)

I added to my position after the stock fell 20% following its Q2 FY26 earnings report. This is a new position I initiated in August, and the stock had already run up by a similar amount into earnings.

In summary, RBRK posted a fantastic quarter, beating guidance and raising full-year expectations. Despite accelerating overall revenue growth, the market focused on a minor deceleration in Subscription ARR. As I noted, the company shifted from half-yearly to annual sales comp plans at the start of FY26. This means Q2 and Q3 should now look more alike, without the Q2 accelerator seen in prior years. Q4, however, is projected to be seasonally strong, which I believe the market overlooked.

Another observation: RBRK’s valuation reset sharply in one month. When I shared my initial pitch at $83, an inverse DCF implied a 37% growth rate. With revenue growth, four consecutive quarters of positive FCF, and the stock now at $74, the implied growth rate dropped to just 27%. That’s a much more reasonable expectation given revenue growth and margin expansion ahead. A company at an inflection point can make premium valuations look not so premium very quickly.

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Allocation

I’ve been using Portseido to track my portfolio for years, and I highly recommend it. It consolidates all my transactions in one place, while its data visualisation and analytics capabilities guide my future decision-making and, ultimately, enhance my returns. Sign up using my affiliate link here.

Performance

• Q3: +1.2% vs. S&P +7.8%

• YTD: +23.4% vs. S&P +13.7%

Top Contributors YTD:

1. NIO: +75%

2. SE: +68%

3. UBER: +62%

4. NU: +55%

5. MELI: +37%

Largest Detractors:

1. INPST: -28%

2. TXN: -2%

3. AMZN: 0%

Buy List

Rubrik (RBRK)

If RBRK remains below $80, I will continue to accumulate shares aggressively and build this into a substantial position faster than usual, given the cash position I am sitting on. While the stock is not cheap, I believe it is not as expensive as it might initially appear. It remains one of the most attractive high-growth software businesses on the market today.

Visa (V)

I built my initial position in Visa about a year ago at 25x forward earnings. The stock was in a mini drawdown at the time following news that the U.S. Justice Department alleged Visa illegally monopolised the U.S. debit card market. These types of lawsuits happen periodically, and if any company is built to handle an antitrust inquiry, it is Visa.

The investment has worked out well, beating the market by a decent margin. With the stock now trading at 27x forward earnings and holding just a 3% weight in my portfolio, it might be time to add more shares in what I view as a very low-risk investment.

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In Case You Missed It

Some of the articles you might have missed during the past month:

Final Words

This has been another strong quarter, and year so far, for the portfolio. I am very satisfied with the results. I have consistently beaten the market over several years, but what I am most proud of is achieving this with what I consider a moderate-risk portfolio

As we know, anyone can outperform in a bull market by simply loading up on high-beta, high-risk names. My outperformance has been achieved by sticking to a consistent strategy and avoiding hype-driven stocks that often overlook downside risks. Some of the best-performing stocks of the year so far, SE, UBER, NU, and MELI, were companies I highlighted at the end of 2024. These businesses all share one important trait: they are platform businesses with structural advantages, which is a cornerstone of My Investment Philosophy. They are profitable, growing faster than the market, and continue to benefit from operating leverage.

Despite this outperformance, I remain cautiously optimistic about the future. I am holding a 4.6% cash position and plan to increase it over the next month or two, while reducing my total holdings to 15 (from the current 16) to align with my maximum target allocation.

If you'd like to support the work of an independent analyst, you can buy me a coffee. The proceeds will contribute to covering the annual running costs of the newsletter.

Buy me a coffee

Join the community of informed investors – subscribe now to receive the latest content straight to your inbox each week and never miss out on valuable investment insights.

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The Chat is a space designed to facilitate, real-time discussions, share knowledge and debate ideas with fellow investors. Join the conversation.

If you found today's edition helpful, please consider sharing it with your friends and colleagues on social media or via email. Your support helps to continue to provide this newsletter for FREE!

Share

Happy investing

Wolf of Harcourt Street

Contact me

Twitter: @wolfofharcourt

Email: wolfofharcourtstreet@gmail.com

Every month, I'll provide you with an update on my portfolio, including all of the transactions, the current allocation, and my buy list. In addition, I'll share a recap of the articles you may have missed from the previous month.

Transactions

Amazon (AMZN)

I added to my position in Amazon after the stock dropped 8% following its Q2 earnings release. I thought the results were impressive, especially considering the growth of AWS, which is now a $123 billion run-rate business with a $195 billion backlog. The backlog grew 25%, outpacing delivered revenue growth of 17%. Capacity remains constrained, which is a very good problem to have. Roughly 85% of IT spend is still on-premises, and that’s before factoring in Gen AI, most of which will be built from scratch in the cloud over the next 10 to 20 years. The opportunity ahead for Amazon and AWS remains enormous.

Mercado Libre (MELI)

I added to my position in MELI after it opened in the red following Q2 earnings. The opportunity did not last long, as the dip was quickly bought by the market. The earnings themselves were strong, with MELI prioritising long-term growth and market leadership over short-term profitability.

You can read the comprehensive review below, but in short, the revenue beat and earnings miss were no surprise. I predicted this in the Portfolio Review – July 2025. MELI is borrowing from Costco’s playbook, reinvesting scale efficiencies into lower prices and better services rather than maximising short-term profits. Whether through free shipping, market-leading yields, or credit offerings, MELI is doubling down on its value proposition to expand market share and entrench leadership in Latin America.

Since earnings, MELI has continued executing, and the business feels like it is firing on all cylinders:

• First distribution centre in Peru: Designed to accelerate 24-hour shipments, expand product assortment, and optimise the shopping experience for thousands of users.

• Launched Mercado Pago credit card in Argentina: With only 37% credit card penetration (vs 54% in Brazil), this product could add 6 million+ people to the system. It lowers barriers to entry with no costly fees or credit history required. MELI can then leverage e-commerce data to offer personalised credit through AI-driven scoring models.

• Launched DineroPlus in Argentina: A new financing alternative for small and medium-sized merchants. Funds are deposited instantly into the digital wallet and can be withdrawn free of charge to a linked bank account.

Home Depot (HD)

I sold my full position in HD, booking a 40% total gain. I initiated the position back in 2023 when the stock traded at just 18x forward earnings. This was always a value play, I believed the multiple would rerate. It felt like a very low-risk trade with strong risk-adjusted returns.

Fast forward to today: the forward multiple is 26, close to the historical high. I see this as too expensive for a business expected to grow revenue only in the low single digits over the next five years. Since I have been consolidating my portfolio, this felt like the obvious time to take profits on a stock with limited future return potential compared to when I bought it.

Rubrik (RBRK)

I opened a new position in Rubrik, which I believe has the potential to become a future cyber resilience leader. I shared a quick pitch with full details, but in short: cybersecurity today is focused on prevention. As breaches become inevitable, the focus will shift to resilience, where Rubrik’s “undo button” for cyberattacks is mission-critical. Rubrik reports Q2 FY26 earnings later this month, so you can expect a comprehensive review.

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Allocation

I’ve been using Portseido to track my portfolio for years, and I highly recommend it. It consolidates all my transactions in one place, while its data visualisation and analytics capabilities guide my future decision-making and, ultimately, enhance my returns. Sign up using my affiliate link here.

Buy List

Rubrik (RBRK)

I want to build Rubrik into a larger position but don’t plan to add more until after earnings later this month. Given the premium valuation, I would look to buy more closer to the initial entry point of $83 if the market offers the opportunity.

Uber (UBER)

Uber has been one of the best-performing stocks in the portfolio this year, up 55% YTD. I initiated the position in December and, while I managed to time the bottom perfectly (a rare occurrence), the rally since has left the portfolio weight under 4%.

The company delivered superb Q2 2025 earnings, which I reviewed in detail below. What impressed me most was the strength of the platform strategy. By integrating Uber Rides and Uber Eats, the company is driving record engagement while massively reducing customer acquisition costs, as both apps serve as free acquisition channels. I’m looking to add more shares if there is any meaningful pullback.

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In Case You Missed It

Some of the articles you might have missed during the past month:

Final Words

This was an extremely busy month. I published five earnings reviews, a new stock pitch on Rubrik, and my investment philosophy. Having written this newsletter for five years now, I wanted to create a reference point for both current and prospective subscribers. It should give you a clear understanding of the kinds of investment ideas I pursue. Writing it was also a valuable exercise for me personally, as it allowed me to reflect on how I’ve evolved as an investor.

I continued to consolidate the portfolio this month. Despite initiating a new position in Rubrik, I now hold a cash position of 5.5%. With the portfolio once again hitting an all-time high, I plan to maintain this cash buffer unless compelling opportunities emerge. Consolidating to a maximum of 15 positions remains a key priority.

If you'd like to support the work of an independent analyst, you can buy me a coffee. The proceeds will contribute to covering the annual running costs of the newsletter.

Buy me a coffee

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Happy investing

Wolf of Harcourt Street

Contact me

Twitter: @wolfofharcourt

Email: wolfofharcourtstreet@gmail.com

I’ve been writing this newsletter every week for almost five years now, since November 2020, to be precise. Some of you may have been here from the early days, while many of you have likely joined more recently.

With that in mind, I want to share a comprehensive overview of my investment philosophy. There are two reasons for this. First, it’s important context for both current and prospective subscribers. I want you to have a clear understanding of the kinds of investment ideas I pursue. Second, it’s a valuable exercise for me personally. I’ve evolved as an investor over the years, and stepping back to clarify what I’m trying to achieve is a worthwhile reflection.

Investing in public markets isn’t about luck or following the latest trend. At its best, it’s a disciplined, repeatable process, one that combines analytical thinking, business insight, and emotional steadiness. My approach is grounded in the Growth at a Reasonable Price philosophy, originally popularised by Peter Lynch and refined for today’s technology-driven, platform-centric world.

This article outlines how I apply that approach through a framework built on company-level analysis, financial interpretation, and long-term conviction. While the businesses I study may span different industries and regions, they share certain traits: scalable models, strong growth potential, and the ability to compound value over time.

The Core Philosophy: Growth with Guardrails

Growth is critical, but it must be paired with discipline. Chasing rapid growth without regard for valuation often leads to disappointment. On the other hand, focusing solely on low valuation multiples can mean missing out on some of the best long-term opportunities.

The GARP philosophy finds a middle ground. I look for companies that are growing meaningfully and valued sensibly relative to their future prospects.

This involves looking beyond headline metrics. A business growing revenue at 30% annually might justify a much higher earnings multiple than one growing at 10%. The key is context, and that comes from understanding the business in depth.

Understanding the Business Comes First

Every investment begins with thorough research focused on understanding the fundamentals:

• The core business model and customer segments

• Revenue and margin drivers

• Competitive advantages

• Management's execution and capital allocation track record

• Key risks and emerging opportunities

I don’t treat stocks as ticker symbols, I see them as ownership stakes in real businesses. My goal is to understand how a company makes money, how it plans to grow, and where it might face challenges. This is especially important in complex or fast-evolving industries where surface-level analysis is not enough.

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Quarterly Results as Compass, Not GPS

Once I’ve built conviction, I treat quarterly results as a tool to monitor the thesis, not as trading signals. I focus on the trends and signals that help assess business quality and execution, such as:

• Revenue and margin trends across segments or regions

• Free cash flow generation and reinvestment patterns

• User or customer metrics, engagement levels, and monetisation

• Management commentary and changes in forward guidance

The goal is not to overreact to short-term fluctuations, but to refine my understanding. If the facts change, the thesis must adapt. If not, I stay the course.

Where I Focus: Platform Businesses with Structural Advantages

Over time, I’ve found that the most compelling long-term opportunities tend to share a few characteristics. These businesses often:

• Operate as platforms or ecosystems

• Benefit from network effects, switching costs, or proprietary infrastructure

• Serve large, under-penetrated markets

• Generate strong incremental margins at scale

Whether it’s digital commerce, payments, software, or infrastructure, I focus on models where the economics improve with scale, and where reinvestment can create a widening competitive moat.

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The Analytical Framework I Apply

To tie everything together, I apply a structured and repeatable process:

• Understand the Business

  I believe that the key to long-term success is understanding the business behind the stock. For this reason, certain industries such as biotech and commodities are outside my investable universe.

• Assess the Moat
  Moats can stem from switching costs, network effects, cost advantages, efficient scale or intangible assets. I assess not just whether a moat exists, but how durable and expandable it is.

• Model Financials and Unit Economics
  I forecast revenue growth, margin progression, and capital efficiency. For different models, I focus on relevant drivers, unit economics, user monetisation, customer acquisition costs, and retention dynamics.

• Run Valuation Checks
  I use discounted cash flow models with conservative assumptions. While the output is useful, the real value lies in the process itself, it helps uncover subtle insights. I also run an inverse DCF and compare valuation multiples across peers to understand what the market might be pricing in or overlooking.

• Track Key Risk Factors
  I consider macroeconomic variables, regulatory shifts, competitive threats, and internal execution risk. I aim to understand not just what could go wrong, but how likely it is and how it could impact the long-term thesis.

The Long-Term Mindset

I don’t try to time the market or chase short-term moves. My advantage lies in doing the deep work and holding through periods of volatility that shake out others.

I aim to own businesses that are not just growing in size, but becoming more efficient, resilient, and essential over time.

This requires:

• Conviction to back my research

• Patience to let compounding work

• Humility to change my mind when new information warrants it

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Final Thoughts

My investment philosophy is grounded in GARP and refined through years of experience tracking modern, high-growth companies across both emerging and developed markets. I apply a consistent, data-driven framework to identify companies with durable business models, attractive valuations, and long-term reinvestment opportunities.

Success in investing rarely comes from finding the next hype-driven winner. It comes from understanding great businesses, buying them at reasonable prices, and having the temperament to hold them through their journey.

If you can do that, you can beat the market over time.

If you'd like to support the work of an independent analyst, you can buy me a coffee. The proceeds will contribute to covering the annual running costs of the newsletter.

Buy me a coffee

Join the community of informed investors – subscribe now to receive the latest content straight to your inbox each week and never miss out on valuable investment insights.

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The Chat is a space designed to facilitate, real-time discussions, share knowledge and debate ideas with fellow investors. Join the conversation.

If you found today's edition helpful, please consider sharing it with your friends and colleagues on social media or via email. Your support helps to continue to provide this newsletter for FREE!

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Happy investing

Wolf of Harcourt Street

Contact me

Twitter: @wolfofharcourt

Email: wolfofharcourtstreet@gmail.com

Every month, I'll provide you with an update on my portfolio, including all of the transactions, the current allocation, and my buy list. In addition, I'll share a recap of the articles you may have missed from the previous month.

Transactions

Sea Limited (SE)

I added to my position in SE, which continues to be one of the best-performing stocks in the portfolio in 2025. Despite the recent run-up in share price, I remain bullish at these levels because I believe Wall Street still doesn’t fully understand the business model or appreciate its long-term earnings power.

SE reports Q2 earnings in a couple of weeks. A number of new Shopee seller order fees came into effect in July, which means they will not be reflected in Q2 results. However, based on my analysis, these fees could conservatively add over $400 million in incremental annual revenue without any increase in existing order volumes.

My investing journey with SE has been a wild ride. I initiated my position at $102 in July 2020, watched it climb to over $350 in October 2022, held on as it crashed 90% to $35 in January 2024, and continued to hold as it rebounded to $160 at the time of writing. As you’ll see in the chart below, I’ve added to my position multiple times throughout this period. As the saying goes, you can’t borrow conviction.

ASML (ASML)

I added to my ASML position after the stock dropped 10% following its Q2 earnings release. The headline numbers were as follows:

• Revenue: €7.69 billion, +23% YoY (Est. €7.54 billion)

• Adjusted EPS: €5.90, +47% YoY (Est. €5.22)

These were strong beats across the board, but the market reacted negatively due to softer Q3 guidance. Still, full-year 2025 revenue guidance remains unchanged at €32.5 billion. You don’t need to be a genius to figure out which one matters more.

Much of the bearish commentary centered on the fact that management didn’t provide guidance for FY26, citing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty. But this criticism ignores precedent, ASML never provides full-year guidance 18 months in advance. For reference, no FY25 guidance was issued in Q2 of last year either.

Interestingly, a day later, TSMC, one of ASML’s most important customers, released its earnings. While the market took it in stride, TSMC also referenced potential tariff-related uncertainty.

Most importantly, ASML currently has an order backlog of €33 billion, meaning they are effectively sold out for the next 12 months even without new orders. Sounds like a good problem to have.

Auto Partner (APR.WA)

I exited my full position in Auto Partner, which represented 3.5% of the portfolio at the time of sale. I’ve already published a full article explaining my decision, but in short, the fundamentals have deteriorated to the point where I no longer believe the company can meet the expectations behind my original investment thesis.

That thesis was based on sustained high-teens revenue growth over the next 3 to 5 years, alongside stable or improving margins. Continuing to hold the stock now would require thesis creep, essentially betting on a turnaround story where growth reaccelerates to the mid-teens and operating leverage improves. I’m not comfortable with that bet until I see proof.

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Allocation

I’ve been using Portseido to track my portfolio for years, and I highly recommend it. It consolidates all my transactions in one place, while its data visualisation and analytics capabilities guide my future decision-making and, ultimately, enhance my returns. Sign up using my affiliate link here.

Buy List

Mercado Libre (MELI)

MELI reports Q2 earnings on Monday, 4 August. Long-time readers will know that Wall Street analysts have a poor track record forecasting MELI results, largely because the company doesn’t provide guidance.

Given the bold new pricing strategy introduced in Brazil this June, I suspect consensus estimates haven’t properly accounted for the impact. My base case is that MELI beats on revenue but misses on EPS, which could prompt a sell-off driven by algorithmic trading.

If that happens, I’m ready. I’ve built up a healthy cash position following recent sales and would welcome the opportunity to make my largest position even larger.

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In Case You Missed It

Some of the articles you might have missed during the past month:

Final Words

I ended the month with the portfolio sitting near an all-time high, while my cash position also reached an unusually elevated level. Generally, I aim to be fully invested since I am a net buyer of stocks through monthly cash contributions. However, after selling Auto Partner this month and Airbnb back in May and not yet deploying the proceeds, I’m currently holding nearly 7% in cash.

As long-time readers will know, I’ve been gradually consolidating my portfolio over the past two years, reducing it from 24 positions at its peak in late 2023 to a target of no more than 15 positions. This has been an intentional and measured process, driven by fundamentals rather than forced sales.

Raising cash by trimming lower-conviction holdings while the portfolio is at or near all-time highs feels like a cheat code. It allows me to free up capital without selling winners and triggering capital gains taxes. With the portfolio still at elevated levels, I’ve been deliberately patient in deploying the proceeds. I’m waiting for clear, compelling opportunities. If none emerge, I’ll begin gradually allocating capital starting next week.

If you'd like to support the work of an independent analyst, you can buy me a coffee. The proceeds will contribute to covering the annual running costs of the newsletter.

Buy me a coffee

Join the community of informed investors – subscribe now to receive the latest content straight to your inbox each week and never miss out on valuable investment insights.

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The Chat is a space designed to facilitate, real-time discussions, share knowledge and debate ideas with fellow investors. Join the conversation.

If you found today's edition helpful, please consider sharing it with your friends and colleagues on social media or via email. Your support helps to continue to provide this newsletter for FREE!

Share

Happy investing

Wolf of Harcourt Street

Contact me

Twitter: @wolfofharcourt

Email: wolfofharcourtstreet@gmail.com

Every month, I'll provide you with an update on my portfolio, including all of the transactions, the current allocation, and my buy list. In addition, I'll share a recap of the articles you may have missed from the previous month.

Transactions

Uber (UBER)

I initiated a position in Uber back in December 2024 at $60, and since then, the stock has been on a tear, returning over 55% in six months. Earlier this month, I shared a 2025 financial model and valuation update to revisit the investment thesis and assumptions.

One of the challenges with buying at such a low price is that it’s very easy to become price anchored. Going through an exercise like this is one way to overcome that mental hurdle. Even though the share price has risen, I still believe the stock is undervalued based on reasonable assumptions, so I added to the position at $85.

With each passing week, my conviction in Uber continues to grow as its pace of execution shows no signs of slowing. Earlier this month, Volkswagen unveiled its white-label robotaxi, which residents of Los Angeles will be able to hail via Uber starting next year.

What’s most interesting about this partnership is that, unlike companies like Tesla and Waymo (an existing Uber partner), Volkswagen wants to act purely as a supplier, leaving the business of fleet management to Uber. In other words, Volkswagen isn’t even attempting to launch its own ride-sharing app, instead, it’s focusing on its core competency: manufacturing vehicles.

This is yet another reason I believe the autonomous vehicle industry will be fragmented, and that fragmentation will ultimately benefit Uber. With its massive distribution network and infrastructure advantage, Uber is well positioned to be the operating layer that ties everything together.

InPost (INPST)

I added to InPost, a stock that remains very much under the radar. The company is a disruptor in the European e-commerce logistics space. It traded at a forward P/E of just 16, and I expect earnings to compound in the high teens over the next five years. The business has a clear reinvestment runway as it continues to build out its locker network across Europe.

The UK expansion, in particular, is standing out from an execution point of view. Just last week, Debenhams Group announced a partnership with InPost to enhance delivery options for customers across the UK. Debenhams Group is the online retailer behind brands including Debenhams, boohoo, boohooMAN, Karen Millen, and PrettyLittleThing.

This is a major win for InPost, giving it the opportunity to handle up to £1.8 billion in gross merchandise volume that flowed through Debenhams Group in 2024.

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Allocation

I’ve been using Portseido to track my portfolio for years, and I highly recommend it. It consolidates all my transactions in one place, while its data visualisation and analytics capabilities guide my future decision-making and, ultimately, enhance my returns. Sign up using my affiliate link here.

Performance

• Q2: +20.4% vs. S&P +10.4%

• YTD: +21.6% vs. S&P +5.5%

Top Contributors YTD:

1. UBER: +55%

2. MELI: +54%

3. SE: +51%

4. NU: +32%

5. META: +26%

Largest Detractors:

1. NIO: -21%

2. INPST: -8%

3. HD: -6%

Buy List

Sea Limited (SE)

SE is one of the best-performing stocks in the portfolio YTD. I last added to the position in April, when the stock dropped to as low as $104 following the “Trump tariff tantrums.” That purchase is now up +50% YTD.

I remain bullish on SE because I believe Wall Street still doesn’t fully grasp the business model or its long-term earnings power. If you look at the 2025 revenue consensus estimates, analysts have made significant upward revisions, especially after the Q4 2024 earnings release, where SE beat revenue expectations by 6%.

SE embodies what I consider the holy grail of growth investing: revenue acceleration coupled with margin expansion.

ASML (ASML)

ASML continues to trade between the €600–€700 range, which I find attractive. S&P Global recently published an update forecasting that ASML is poised for an AI-fueled rebound, driven by surging demand for EUV and High-NA tools.

They project revenue to grow from €32 billion in 2025 to €52 billion by 2030. If accurate, this could equate to EPS of over €50, meaning ASML is currently trading at roughly 13x 2030 earnings.

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In Case You Missed It

Some of the articles you might have missed during the past month:

Final Words

The Q2 2025 portfolio return of +20.4% marked the best quarterly performance since Q4 2020, when the portfolio returned +37.3%. While I'm pleased with the performance, especially relative to the broader market, strong short-term returns have made me cautious. I’ve been slow to deploy the cash I built up last month and am currently maintaining a cash position of over 4%.

Generally speaking, anyone can outperform in a bull market by simply taking on more high-beta, high-risk names. Personally, I find far greater satisfaction in outperforming during flat or down markets. While I underperformed the market last year, zooming out, even just one more year, shows that this has been more than offset by the outperformance in 2023 and 2025 to date.

This outperformance has been achieved by sticking to a consistent strategy and avoiding hype-driven stocks that often ignore downside risks. Some of the best-performing stocks of the year so far in UBER, MELI, and NU, were highlighted as undervalued in my December 2024 Portfolio Review. I continue to believe that some of the best opportunities are already in the portfolio. Many of my largest holdings and top performers in 2025 remain reasonably valued, even at current levels.

If you'd like to support the work of an independent analyst, you can buy me a coffee. The proceeds will contribute to covering the annual running costs of the newsletter.

Buy me a coffee

Join the community of informed investors – subscribe now to receive the latest content straight to your inbox each week and never miss out on valuable investment insights.

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The Chat is a space designed to facilitate, real-time discussions, share knowledge and debate ideas with fellow investors. Join the conversation.

If you found today's edition helpful, please consider sharing it with your friends and colleagues on social media or via email. Your support helps to continue to provide this newsletter for FREE!

Share

Happy investing

Wolf of Harcourt Street

Contact me

Twitter: @wolfofharcourt

Email: wolfofharcourtstreet@gmail.com

Every month, I'll provide you with an update on my portfolio, including all of the transactions, the current allocation, and my buy list. In addition, I'll share a recap of the articles you may have missed from the previous month.

Transactions

Airbnb (ABNB)

I sold my full position in Airbnb, which had a 4.5% portfolio weighting at the time of sale. My average cost basis was $134, and I sold at $137, resulting in a modest 2% return, just above breakeven.

I’ve already shared a comprehensive article explaining my rationale (linked below), but in short: after a mediocre series of earnings reports and a lacklustre Summer Release, I have serious doubts about Airbnb’s ability to reaccelerate revenue growth toward 20%.

While I don’t believe Airbnb is wildly overvalued at current levels, I’m simply not interested in holding a growth stock that isn’t growing at above-average rates. That said, if the company’s new initiatives prove successful, I would be open to reentering the stock. I admire CEO Brian Chesky and believe the underlying business model remains a cash-generating machine.

ASML (ASML)

I began building a position in ASML earlier this year and continued adding this month. I find the stock attractive below €700, and it has mostly traded between €600 and €700 over the past six months.

Nubank (NU)

NU reported Q1 2025 earnings this month. Key highlights include:

• Total Customers: Reached 118.6 million, up 4.3 million in Q1 and 19.3 million year-over-year (YoY).

  

• Customer Profitability: Monthly ARPAC rose 5% QoQ and 17% YoY (FX-neutral) to $11.20. Cost to Serve Per Active Customer remained under $1, at $0.70, down 4% YoY and 12% QoQ (FXN).

  

• Revenue: Grew 40% YoY FX-neutral to a record $3.2 billion. On a reported basis, growth was 19%, impacted by the depreciation of the Brazilian Real, despite a rebound in Q1.

  

• Operating Margin: NU achieved an operating margin of 24%, up from 21% YoY but down from 26% QoQ. Margin pressure from higher interest rates and international expansion is considered strategic and temporary.

  

Overall, it was a solid report, though not as spectacular as some recent quarters. Despite short-term headwinds, the long-term thesis remains intact. My fair value remains around $15 per share, so I was happy to add below $12.

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Allocation

I’ve been using Portseido to track my portfolio for years, and I highly recommend it. It consolidates all my transactions in one place, while its data visualisation and analytics capabilities guide my future decision-making and, ultimately, enhance my returns. Sign up using my affiliate link here.

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Buy List

Stocks on my radar to add this month:

ASML (ASML)

I plan to continue accumulating shares of ASML if it stays below €700. A boring but simple strategy.

InPost (INPST)

InPost also reported Q1 2025 earnings this month. Key highlights:

• Parcel Volume: 272 million parcels, up 12% YoY, outpacing e-commerce growth in key regions.

  

• Revenue: Total revenue reached PLN 2,951.9 million, up 22% YoY, driven by exceptional UK & Ireland growth (+145%), with Poland and the Eurozone growing 11% and 14%, respectively.

  

• Adjusted EBITDA: Rose to PLN 940.2 million, up 24% YoY. The margin improved 52 basis points to 31.9%, supported by strong performance in Poland and expanding margins in the Eurozone and UK & Ireland.

  

I find InPost attractively priced at the moment. It trades at a forward P/E of under 20, and I expect earnings to compound in the high teens over the next five years.

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In Case You Missed It

Some of the articles you might have missed during the past month:

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Final Words

After a 19% drawdown in April, the portfolio rebounded strongly in May to reach a new all-time high.

The sale of Airbnb was opportunistic, coinciding with the portfolio hitting this milestone. As a result, I am now holding a cash position of nearly 4% alongside a record portfolio value. If opportunities arise in the form of a meaningful pullback, I have the dry powder to act. If they don’t, I’ll deploy capital gradually over the coming months.

If you'd like to support the work of an independent analyst, you can buy me a coffee. The proceeds will contribute to covering the annual running costs of the newsletter.

Buy me a coffee

Join the community of informed investors – subscribe now to receive the latest content straight to your inbox each week and never miss out on valuable investment insights.

Subscribe now

The Chat is a space designed to facilitate, real-time discussions, share knowledge and debate ideas with fellow investors. Join the conversation.

If you found today's edition helpful, please consider sharing it with your friends and colleagues on social media or via email. Your support helps to continue to provide this newsletter for FREE!

Share

Happy investing

Wolf of Harcourt Street

Contact me

Twitter: @wolfofharcourt

Email: wolfofharcourtstreet@gmail.com

Every month, I'll provide you with an update on my portfolio, including all of the transactions, the current allocation, and my buy list. In addition, I'll share a recap of the articles you may have missed from the previous month.

Transactions

Sea Limited (SE)

At the end of Q1, SE was one of the best-performing stocks in the portfolio year-to-date. Then, in early April, the stock dropped to as low as $104, following the Trump tariff tantrums.

This sell-off made little sense to me, as SE was unaffected by these trade tensions. Its e-commerce platform, Shopee, operates entirely within Southeast Asia, meaning it doesn’t depend on cross-border trade of physical goods with the U.S.

This proved to be an opportunistic move, as the stock has already returned +25% in less than a month since the purchase.

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Allocation

I’ve been using Portseido to track my portfolio for years, and I highly recommend it. It consolidates all my transactions in one place, while its data visualisation and analytics capabilities guide my future decision-making and, ultimately, enhance my returns. Sign up using my affiliate link here.

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Buy List

Stocks on my radar to add this month:

ASML (ASML)

ASML is a relatively new position, added to the portfolio in February, and one I’d like to build into a larger weight. The company reported solid Q1 earnings earlier this month:

• Total net sales: €7.7 billion (+46% YoY), in line with guidance.

• Gross margin: 54.0%, exceeding expectations due to a favourable EUV product mix and performance milestone achievements.

• Net income: €2.4 billion (+92% YoY), representing 30% of net sales, or €6.00 in EPS.

• Net bookings: €3.9 billion, including €1.2 billion in EUV bookings.

• Q2 guidance: Net sales between €7.2–€7.7 billion; gross margin between 50–53%.

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In Case You Missed It

Some of the articles you might have missed during the past month:

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Final Words

If you're part of the subscriber chat community, you’ll know I was on vacation for most of April, so newsletters were less frequent than usual. I took a full detox from the markets, something I haven’t done in a while. It’s easy to burn out if you don’t take time to recharge, so I highly recommend building that space in.

I was in Southeast Asia for this trip, and while I wasn’t actively checking the market, I couldn't help but spot due diligence opportunities. One example was Grab, often referred to as the "Uber of Southeast Asia."

From my experience, the business appears to be under-earning. On a few occasions, the wait time for a ride was so long that I cancelled the trip entirely. My takeaway: they don’t have enough driver supply to meet demand. That’s a good problem to have and may reflect lower vehicle ownership in the region.

While I don’t own Grab directly, I do have exposure via Uber, which holds a 27.5% stake in Grab following the merger of its Southeast Asian operations in 2018.

If you'd like to support the work of an independent analyst, you can buy me a coffee. The proceeds will contribute to covering the annual running costs of the newsletter.

Buy me a coffee

Join the community of informed investors – subscribe now to receive the latest content straight to your inbox each week and never miss out on valuable investment insights.

Subscribe now

The Chat is a space designed to facilitate, real-time discussions, share knowledge and debate ideas with fellow investors. Join the conversation.

If you found today's edition helpful, please consider sharing it with your friends and colleagues on social media or via email. Your support helps to continue to provide this newsletter for FREE!

Share

Happy investing

Wolf of Harcourt Street

Contact me

Twitter: @wolfofharcourt

Email: wolfofharcourtstreet@gmail.com

Every month, I'll provide you with an update on my portfolio, including all of the transactions, the current allocation, and my buy list. In addition, I'll share a recap of the articles you may have missed from the previous month.

Transactions

ASML (ASML)

I added to my position in ASML, which was the most recent addition to the portfolio in February. Earlier this month, TSMC announced a $100 billion investment in U.S. chip manufacturing, involving the construction of five additional facilities. More plants mean more ASML machines will be required.

Also this month, reports emerged that China has developed its own EUV machine to rival ASML. While this headline might seem alarming at first, a deeper look suggests otherwise. First, the equipment is only scheduled for trial production in Q3 2025, with full-scale manufacturing by 2026. Unlike DeepSeek, which had a detailed research paper accompanying its release, these reports remain unconfirmed, with limited transparency, raising questions about reliability and yield rates.

Based on current information, ASML’s monopoly remains intact. The company controls ~90% of the global lithography market and remains the sole supplier of High-NA EUV systems. Even if China successfully develops a competing system in the long run, I find it highly unlikely that companies outside of China would adopt these machines due to geopolitical concerns. China is set to account for 20% of ASML’s revenue in 2025.

Meta (META)

I took advantage of the market correction to add to my position in META, which is currently down 21% from its all-time high in February. META is a high-quality business and one of the few companies already seeing tangible benefits from its investments in AI.

The stock is currently trading at 22 times forward earnings, which I believe is very reasonable for a company of this caliber.

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Allocation

I’ve been using Portseido to track my portfolio for years, and I highly recommend it. It consolidates all my transactions in one place, while its data visualisation and analytics capabilities guide my future decision-making and, ultimately, enhance my returns. Sign up using my affiliate link here.

Performance

Q1: +1.2% vs. S&P -4.6%

Top Contributors YTD:

1. SE: +23%

2. UBER: +19%

3. ABBV: +18%

4. MELI: +15%

5. V: +11%

Largest Detractors:

1. INPST: -15%

2. ASML: -13%

3. AMZN: -13%

4. NIO: -13%

5. MSFT: -11%

Buy List

Sea Limited (SE)

SE has held up exceptionally well this year and is the best-performing stock in the portfolio YTD. One reason for its resilience is that it remains immune to U.S. tariff concerns, which have weighed on broader market sentiment.

The company posted superb earnings last month, with all three business segments now profitable and self-sufficientwhile continuing to accelerate top-line revenue growth. You can read the full earnings review below.

Nubank (NU)

While SE has performed well, NU is on the opposite end of the spectrum, currently down 35% from its November 2024 highs. This weakness has been driven in part by a deterioration in the Brazilian Real against the U.S. dollar toward the end of 2024. However, the currency has rebounded in Q1.

Another concern has been elevated credit risk in Brazil. While NU did not report an increase in delinquency rates in Q4, it has tightened eligibility criteria for lower-credit bands in PIX financing. As I mentioned in the earnings review, when management is cautious, investors should be too.

That said, I believe a lot of negativity is already priced in, with the stock now trading at just 18 times forward earnings.

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In Case You Missed It

Some of the articles you might have missed during the past month:

Final Words

While Q1 was volatile for the broader market, my portfolio has held up well, delivering a positive return despite negative overall market performance. While long-term returns are what truly matter, it's satisfying to have built a portfolio that’s proving more resilient than the broader market.

This volatility has also created compelling opportunities, which I have taken advantage of and will continue to do so. While market conditions fluctuate between bullish and bearish, my focus remains on executing my strategy consistently, regardless of the prevailing sentiment.

Having a strategy you can stick to through good times and bad has been a key pillar of my investing process. This is reflected in the fact that I have only opened one new position and sold one holding so far this year.

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

If you'd like to support the work of an independent analyst, you can buy me a coffee. The proceeds will contribute to covering the annual running costs of the newsletter.

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Wolf of Harcourt Street

Contact me

Twitter: @wolfofharcourt

Email: wolfofharcourtstreet@gmail.com

Every month, I'll provide you with an update on my portfolio, including all of the transactions, the current allocation, and my buy list. In addition, I'll share a recap of the articles you may have missed from the previous month.

Transactions

ASML (ASML)

I opened a position in ASML, a stock that has been on my watchlist for almost two years. Since the news of DeepSeek broke in January, I have been conducting extensive research into the area of semiconductors and AI. For better or worse, I realised that I have little to no direct exposure to AI, with only indirect exposure via the hyperscalers and Meta. This was intentional, as I did not feel comfortable investing in Nvidia and similar companies due to their complexity. This is where ASML comes in. It sits at the beginning of the value chain, developing and manufacturing machines used to produce semiconductor chips. If Nvidia and others are chasing the gold rush, then ASML is selling the shovels.

As you can see in the excellent chart above from , ASML’s customers are the foundries such as TSMC and Samsung. ASML has a monopoly in EUV lithography machines, and for good reason. The complexity of these machines is such that more than 100,000 components are sourced from specialty providers. The average price of an ASML machine is close to €400 million.

What I find attractive about ASML at the moment is that it has not seen the explosion in earnings and revenues that other AI stocks like Nvidia have. Revenue only grew by 3% in 2024, but this is because it is a cyclical business. As ASML comes out of this trough, revenue is expected to grow by double digits over the next couple of years as the first modules of its TwinScan EXE:5200 will be delivered to customers. Intel has already received the first two cutting-edge lithography machines from ASML, which are now in production at its factories. Early results showed that the machines can do what previously took three exposures and about 40 processing steps with just one exposure and a single-digit number of processing steps.

Last year, TSMC began construction of its first €10 billion semiconductor plant in Germany, expected to be operational by 2027. This plant will need machines supplied by ASML.

Finally, ASML is not just an AI play. Its business is diversified well beyond this area, as semiconductor chips are in everything from household appliances to smartphones and electric vehicles. At 29 times forward earnings, I think this is a reasonable valuation for a business that could grow earnings at a compounded annual growth rate of close to 20% over the next three to five years.

Uber (UBER)

Uber reported strong Q4 earnings earlier this month, yet the stock sold off by 8%. While I don’t spend much time trying to predict market behaviour, this reaction really puzzled me. I initiated this position in December, and while it had already provided double-digit returns, it was still quite small, so I used this opportunity to add to my position. The very next day, the stock recovered and soared even higher as Bill Ackman disclosed that he had accumulated a $2 billion position. This was another great example of the importance of doing your own objective work rather than reacting to short-term price movements.

The full earnings review is linked below.

PayPal (PYPL)

I decided to sell my full position in PayPal, worth 1% of my portfolio, after it reported Q4 earnings. PayPal is in a tough spot at the moment and is in turnaround mode with a new CEO at the helm. When the stock was trading below $60 in 2024, I had even considered adding to the position. In hindsight, I probably should have sold when the stock hit $90, as this was always a turnaround play despite owning the stock for several years.

Personally, I see no reason to own PayPal over a business like Adyen, other than comparative valuations. Cheap is not always better, and cheap stocks are often cheap for a reason. Adyen is continuing to thrive, while PayPal’s Braintree has completely ground to a halt, only growing 2% in Q4. While overall revenue grew 7%, a large-cap business growing revenue and earnings at low single digits is not where I want to allocate capital when there are so many better opportunities out there.

What made this decision easier was the fact that this position represented only 1% of my portfolio, and I am looking to consolidate my holdings. If I wasn't prepared to increase my weight, there was little point in holding such an immaterial position.

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Allocation

I’ve been using Portseido to track my portfolio for years, and I highly recommend it. It consolidates all my transactions in one place, while its data visualisation and analytics capabilities guide my future decision-making and, ultimately, enhance my returns. Sign up using my affiliate link here.

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Buy List

Stocks on my radar to add this month:

InPost (INPST)

InPost has been very busy executing on its international growth strategy over the past couple of months. This month saw very positive developments in the UK. This week, InPost launched label-free delivery in the UK. Until now, InPost was only available to customers who bought items from online retailers. Now, customer-to-customer deliveries are available, starting at £1.99, undercutting Royal Mail’s lowest price of £3.25. RIP Royal Mail.

Earlier in the month, InPost expanded its locker network at Aldi stores in the UK. First trialled in December 2023 and rolled out to 22 stores across the UK in March 2024, the lockers have received positive feedback from customers and have now expanded to 260 stores.

Lastly, the InPost app reached 14 million users in Poland this month, with 7.5 million using InPost Pay despite it only being launched one year ago. 22 times forward earnings for a business with such a long growth runway ahead of it feels too cheap to ignore.

ASML (ASML)

ASML is a new position, and one that I would like to build into a much larger weight. I am very comfortable adding below €700.

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In Case You Missed It

Some of the articles you might have missed during the past month:

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Final Words

February was an extremely busy month for me, with a lot of earnings to cover. I’ve shared a number of reviews already, and you can expect more to come in March, starting with Sea Limited next week. The standout performers this month were Adyen and Mercado Libre, which is quite apt given they are my two largest positions. Despite a very strong start to the year for the portfolio, I am still seeing plenty of opportunities to deploy new capital. As the broader market index has remained relatively flat, these opportunities could become even better.

If you'd like to support the work of an independent analyst, you can buy me a coffee. The proceeds will contribute to covering the annual running costs of the newsletter.

Buy me a coffee

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The Chat is a space designed to facilitate, real-time discussions, share knowledge and debate ideas with fellow investors. Join the conversation.

If you found today's edition helpful, please consider sharing it with your friends and colleagues on social media or via email. Your support helps to continue to provide this newsletter for FREE!

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Happy investing

Wolf of Harcourt Street

Contact me

Twitter: @wolfofharcourt

Email: wolfofharcourtstreet@gmail.com

Every month, I'll provide you with an update on my portfolio, including all of the transactions, the current allocation, and my buy list. In addition, I'll share a recap of the articles you may have missed from the previous month.

Transactions

I added to my positions in Nubank (NU) and Mercado Libre (MELI) for similar reasons. As I noted in the December portfolio review, both companies sold off at the end of 2024 due to concerns about Brazil’s macroeconomic environment—primarily higher U.S. interest rates, a stronger USD, and tariff threats.

I view these as short-term headwinds rather than new challenges, as Latin America’s economic landscape has been volatile for decades. Regional fears create opportunities to accumulate shares in these companies, as the concerns are not company-specific. Any macroeconomic pressures affecting these two market leaders will likely impact their competition even more.

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Allocation

I’ve been using Portseido to track my portfolio for years, and I highly recommend it. It consolidates all my transactions in one place, while its data visualisation and analytics capabilities guide my future decision-making and, ultimately, enhance my returns. Sign up using my affiliate link here.

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Buy List

Stocks on my radar to add this month:

• Meta (META)

  The recent launch of the DeepSeek Large Language Model (LLM) has reinforced my belief that LLMs are a commodity. As more models become available, prices decline, leading to a race to zero. The real value will be unlocked through how these models are integrated with data and workflows.

  Meta is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend due to its massive repository of high-quality data. The company anticipated this shift early, making its model open-source, similar to DeepSeek. This move fosters a community-driven ecosystem, enhances compatibility with other tools, and prevents new players from gaining disproportionate control in AI.

• Uber (UBER)

  I initiated a starter position in Uber in December, and since then, the stock has already returned +11% YTD. While we invest with the expectation of price appreciation, this rapid rise meant I didn’t get the chance to accumulate more shares at a depressed valuation.

  I still believe Uber is undervalued and plan to add another tranche to my position. My Uber Quick Pitch is linked below for those who may have missed it.

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In Case You Missed It

Some of the articles you might have missed during the past month:

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Final Words

After a 5% correction in December, the portfolio has rebounded strongly at the start of 2025, reaching a new all-time high.

In my 2024 Annual Report, I noted that while general market commentary in 2024 painted a picture of overvaluation, my portfolio’s performance told a different story. One month into 2025, that theory is playing out, with five holdings already delivering double-digit returns.

This serves as a reminder of the classic Wall Street saying:

"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."

In the short term, stocks can move for many reasons, but over time, stock prices track free cash flow per share. Sometimes, an investment thesis plays out quickly when a stock is massively oversold—like Adyen in 2023—but more often than not, time is required for returns to materialize, as long as the business fundamentals continue improving.

If you'd like to support the work of an independent analyst, you can buy me a coffee. The proceeds will contribute to covering the annual running costs of the newsletter.

Buy me a coffee

Join the community of informed investors – subscribe now to receive the latest content straight to your inbox each week and never miss out on valuable investment insights.

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The Chat is a space designed to facilitate, real-time discussions, share knowledge and debate ideas with fellow investors. Join the conversation.

If you found today's edition helpful, please consider sharing it with your friends and colleagues on social media or via email. Your support helps to continue to provide this newsletter for FREE!

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Happy investing

Wolf of Harcourt Street

Contact me

Twitter: @wolfofharcourt

Email: wolfofharcourtstreet@gmail.com

When a company exceeds market expectations, its stock price usually reacts positively. Conversely, when a company fails to meet expectations, its stock often sells off.

Managing an active portfolio shares some similar psychological traits. My benchmark is the S&P 500, representing the return I could earn by doing nothing as a passive investor. At the start of 2024, if someone had offered me a 15% return, I would have gladly accepted—especially following a 34% return in 2023, which I recognize is unsustainable in the long term. This is where the game of expectations comes into play.

The S&P 500 returned 23% in 2024, meaning I lagged by 8%. However, in 2023, I outperformed the benchmark by 10%. Since the start of 2023, my portfolio has doubled in value through a combination of returns and cash contributions—something I initially expected would take five years, not two.

Since inception, I’ve achieved a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14%, surpassing my target of 10%. For context, the S&P 500 has delivered a CAGR of 8% over the past 20 years. A detailed review of my current portfolio holdings and 2024 performance is available in Portfolio Review - December 2024.

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Portfolio Turnover

I started and ended 2024 with 18 positions, achieving this by initiating 4 new positions and closing 4 existing ones. After exceeding my long-term turnover target in 2023, I’m much happier to have significantly reduced turnover in 2024. My aim for low turnover is best summarised by this quote:

Your portfolio is like a bar of soap. The more you touch, the smaller it'll get.

The new positions added to the portfolio were Nubank (NU), Visa (V), InPost (INPST), and Uber (UBER). Meanwhile, I exited Chevron (CVX), Brookfield Renewable (BEPC), PepsiCo (PEP), and Datadog (DDOG). I’ve covered the rationale behind these transactions in monthly portfolio reviews, so I won’t rehash them here.

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Contributors and Detractors

The best-performing stock in the portfolio was Sea Limited (SE) (+162%), followed by Meta (META) (+66%), Amazon (AMZN) (+44%), PayPal (PYPL) (+39%), and Nubank (NU) (+24%).

Interestingly, Sea Limited (SE) and PayPal (PYPL), my two worst-performing stocks in 2023 (-22% and -14%, respectively), became top performers in 2024. Meanwhile, Meta (META) and Amazon (AMZN), among the strongest performers in 2023 (+194% and +81%, respectively), continued their momentum into 2024. Some winners kept winning, while some beaten-down stocks proved to be oversold.

The worst-performing stock was NIO (NIO) (-52%), followed by Evolution (EVO) (-27%), Auto Partner (APR.WA) (-23%), and Airbnb (ABNB) (-3%). All other portfolio stocks achieved positive returns.

Of the worst performers in 2023, only NIO (NIO) (-7%) remains in 2024.

Looking ahead to 2025, which of 2024’s worst performers might replicate the turnaround seen by Sea Limited (SE) and PayPal (PYPL)? I believe Evolution (EVO) and Auto Partner (APR.WA) have the best chance, driven by valuation. Despite challenges in 2024, both companies grew revenue by double digits and now trade at low-teens forward earnings multiples due to multiple compression.

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Dividends Received

Dividends received in 2024 increased by 1% year-over-year, compared to a 76% increase in 2023. This modest growth reflects my focus on total return rather than dividend optimization. Of the four positions I sold in 2024, three paid dividends (yields of 3%–5%), which were not replaced, as Nubank (NU), InPost (INPST), and Uber (UBER) don’t pay dividends, and Visa (V) has a yield below 1%.

Offsetting this were notable dividend hikes from Evolution (EVO) (+25%), Microsoft (MSFT) (+11%), and Home Depot (HD) (+8%). Remaining hikes were in the 5%–6% range. I pool dividends with cash contributions and reinvest opportunistically.

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Fees

I focus on fees as a percentage of new deposits because this metric best reflects costs regardless of portfolio size. To calculate this, add up all fees incurred during the year and divide them by total cash deposits, which can be easily obtained from your brokerage account.

In 2023, fees as a percentage of new deposits more than doubled from 0.34% in 2022 to 0.84%. This spike set off alarm bells, as fees can severely hinder the compounding process.

The increase was driven by DEGIRO's hikes in commissions and handling fees. By the end of 2023, I took action by opening an account with Trade Republic, which offers a much lower fee structure. As a result, I’m pleased to report that this ratio dropped to 0.69% in 2024.

Monitoring fee structures will remain a priority in 2025 as I aim to reduce this ratio to as close to zero as possible.

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Newsletter Performance

2024 marked the best year yet for the newsletter. After doubling from 1,826 to 3,710 subscribers in 2023, momentum carried into 2024, with 3,396 new subscribers joining the community. By year-end, the subscriber count had reached 7,106. To put this in perspective, nearly as many new subscribers joined in 2024 as had joined since the newsletter's inception in November 2020.

The newsletter continues to grow into a truly global community, now with subscribers from 127 countries and counting.

Several key factors have driven this success.

1. Flexible Publishing Schedule
   In 2023, I shifted from a fixed cadence to an opportunistic schedule, publishing only when the timing felt right. This approach has resulted in more comprehensive, detailed material, which has resonated strongly with readers.

2. Credible Track Record
   The newsletter has established a credible and verifiable track record in public. New readers now have access to over four years of archived content, which can be explored at their own pace. Each article includes time stamps, portfolio transactions, and performance data.

   Unlike many newsletters that flame out after a short run, this one has been consistently delivered for four years while maintaining a high level of transparency. Compounding applies in many areas of life, and this newsletter exemplifies the rewards of persistence and quality output.

3. Community Chat

   The Community Chat, launched in the second half of the year, has been a personal highlight for me. Its aim was to create an environment where knowledge is shared, strategies are discussed, and we all grow together. This community comprises many highly knowledgeable investors with unique experiences (yes, you!), and tapping into this collective wisdom has already added immense value for me. The great debates and discussions taking place here simply wouldn’t have happened otherwise.

The most popular posts in 2024 were:

• Nu Holdings Investment Thesis - 13.0k views

• Evolution: Revenue Growth Slows, but Shareholder Returns Set to Soar - 8.1k views

• Uber Quick Pitch - 8.0k views

• Portfolio Review - November 2024 - 7.7k views

• Mercado Libre: Investing For The Long-Term - 7.4k views

One underrated aspect of the archive is the continued relevance of evergreen posts, which still attract readers years later. For instance, the Evolution AB Investment Thesis remains the most-viewed post of all time, with over 15.4k views.

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Lessons Learned

1. Error of Omission

An error of omission occurs when a stock we analyzed outperformed but wasn’t added to the portfolio. My biggest error of omission in recent memory was Axon Enterprise (AXON). It came onto my radar toward the end of 2023 after the Irish government fast-tracked legislation to enable the use of body-worn cameras for the police force (Gardaí).

Since this tweet alone, the stock has risen +145%. In hindsight, this was an obvious opportunity staring me in the face.

AXON enjoys a near-monopoly in a sector with extremely high switching costs. Once a government department chooses a vendor, transitioning to another is enormously challenging. At the time, however, I got sidetracked by other research and priorities, which caused me to pause my work and miss the chance to study the company enough to get comfortable with its valuation.

As investors, we spend so much time turning over rocks to find that one fat pitch. When an opportunity lands in your lap, don’t pass it up.

2. Market of Stocks, Not a Stock Market

The stock market isn’t a monolithic entity; it’s a market of individual stocks. While general market commentary often painted a picture of overvaluation in 2024, my portfolio’s performance told a different story.

Despite widespread concerns about inflated market valuations, my modest returns reflected a more nuanced reality. Core holdings like Mercado Libre (MELI), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), and Adyen (ADYEN) are trading at lower EV/EBITDA multiples now than they were three years ago.

This reminds us that while overall market valuations may appear stretched, opportunities still exist in individual stocks. Broad market indices don’t always reflect the potential of specific companies or sectors.

Don’t let general market sentiment overshadow your research and analysis. A portfolio of carefully selected stocks can perform differently from the overall market, and what seems overvalued at first glance may reveal undervalued gems upon closer inspection

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Goals for 2025

1. Grow Community to 11,000 Subscribers

Last year, I set a goal to reach 6,000 subscribers by the end of 2024. I’m delighted to have surpassed this goal by more than 1,000 subscribers! This year, my aim is to grow the community to 11,000 subscribers, with passing the 10,000 mark as a key milestone along the way.

You can help me reach this goal by sharing the newsletter with family, friends, and colleagues who might find it valuable.

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2. Concentrate Portfolio to 15 Positions

At one point, my portfolio held 24 different positions—far beyond what I could effectively track. Fast forward a few years, and I’ve trimmed this down to 18. One of the most impactful results of this process has been the increased clarity of thought it has brought. By focusing on fewer positions, I’ve freed up mental bandwidth, which has significantly improved other aspects of my investment process.

My goal for 2025 is to further concentrate the portfolio to 15 positions. Currently, I have four positions that each account for less than 3% of the portfolio. These smaller positions are unlikely to meaningfully impact performance. For example, a 2% position that doubles only adds 2% to the portfolio, whereas a 5% position that appreciates by 50% has a larger impact.

A Note of Gratitude

Thank you for your continued support and engagement. A newsletter is only as strong as its readership, and I’m truly grateful for you being part of this journey. Wishing you a healthy and profitable 2025!

If you'd like to support the work of an independent analyst, you can buy me a coffee. The proceeds will contribute to covering the annual running costs of the newsletter.

Buy me a coffee

Join the community of informed investors – subscribe now to receive the latest content straight to your inbox each week and never miss out on valuable investment insights.

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The Chat is a space designed to facilitate, real-time discussions, share knowledge and debate ideas with fellow investors. Join the conversation

If you found today's edition helpful, please consider sharing it with your friends and colleagues on social media or via email. Your support helps to continue to provide this newsletter for FREE!

Share

Happy investing

Wolf of Harcourt Street

Contact me

Twitter: @wolfofharcourt

Email: wolfofharcourtstreet@gmail.com

Every month, I'll provide you with an update on my portfolio, including all of the transactions, the current allocation, and my buy list. In addition, I'll share a recap of the articles you may have missed from the previous month.

Transactions

Uber (UBER)

I recently opened a new position in Uber, the digital aggregator that connects riders with drivers. I shared a Quick Pitch explaining why I believe the stock presents an interesting opportunity right now. If you missed it, you can read it for the full details. In summary, I think concerns about the existential risk from autonomous vehicles are overblown. Additionally, Uber's growth potential remains compelling, driven by the expansion of the global ride-hailing market, diversification into new services, and the remarkable success of the Uber One membership program.

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Allocation

I’ve been using Portseido to track my portfolio for years, and I highly recommend it. It consolidates all my transactions in one place, while its data visualization and analytics capabilities guide my future decision-making and, ultimately, enhance my returns. Sign up using my affiliate link here.

Performance

Q4: -6.0% vs S&P +2.3%

YTD: +15.6% vs +23.1% S&P

The biggest contributors to the YTD portfolio performance have been:

1. SE: +162%

2. META: +65%

3. AMZN: +44%

4. PYPL: +39%

5. NU: +24%

The largest detractors to the performance have been:

1. NIO: -52%

2. EVO: -36%

3. APR: -27%

4. ABNB: -3%

Buy List

Stocks on my radar to add this month:

• Nubank (NU)

  In early November, NU was trading above $15, but it has since dropped to just over $10. The sell-off stems from concerns about Brazil's macroeconomic situation. Global factors—such as higher U.S. interest rates, a stronger USD, and tariff threats—combined with worries about fiscal accounts, have heightened tensions in Brazilian financial markets. This has weakened the Brazilian Real and driven up local interest rates.

  While these factors present short-term headwinds for NU, they are not new challenges. NU has consistently navigated these dynamics in the Latin American market. After regretting missing the opportunity to buy earlier in 2024, now seems like an opportune time to start accumulating shares again.

• Mercado Libre (MELI)

  Like NU, MELI’s stock has been impacted by similar macroeconomic concerns. However, MELI's 25-year track record provides a level of resilience compared to NU's 10-year history.

  Despite MELI already being my largest position, I still see this as an attractive opportunity to add to my long-term holding. Short-term challenges aside, the company’s long-term prospects remain compelling.

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In Case You Missed It

Some of the articles you might have missed during the past month:

Final Words

Q4 proved to be a weaker end to the year than I had anticipated at the close of Q3, but overall, it was still a very positive year. The negative performance in Q4 was primarily driven by MELI and NU, which together account for 18% of my portfolio. These holdings delivered negative returns, as I mentioned earlier, despite a strong year overall.

Additionally, the weak performance of my European holdings, EVO and APR.WA, which together represent 9% of the portfolio, continued a trend that has persisted throughout 2024.

While I underperformed the market this year, it’s important to maintain a long-term perspective. If you had offered me a 15% return following a 34% gain in 2023, I would have gladly accepted.

I will share the 2024 Annual Report in the coming weeks, so stay tuned for deeper insights into the overall portfolio and reflections on this year’s performance. In the meantime, you can revisit the 2023 Annual Report.

Roll on 2025!

If you'd like to support the work of an independent analyst, you can buy me a coffee. The proceeds will contribute to covering the annual running costs of the newsletter.

Buy me a coffee

Join the community of informed investors – subscribe now to receive the latest content straight to your inbox each week and never miss out on valuable investment insights.

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The Chat is a space designed to facilitate, real-time discussions, share knowledge and debate ideas with fellow investors. Join the conversation.

If you found today's edition helpful, please consider sharing it with your friends and colleagues on social media or via email. Your support helps to continue to provide this newsletter for FREE!

Share

Happy investing

Wolf of Harcourt Street

Contact me

Twitter: @wolfofharcourt

Email: wolfofharcourtstreet@gmail.com