Market Movers - 21 December 2024
Stocks covered: NU, ADYEN, MELI, SE, INPST, EVO
Welcome back to the Wolf of Harcourt Street Newsletter.
Market Movers is your time-saving guide to crucial stock news, cutting through the noise.
This will be the last newsletter edition before Christmas, so I’d like to take this opportunity to wish you all a very Merry Christmas and thank you for your continued support, especially over the past year.
With all that being said, let’s dive into today’s edition!
Todays Agenda
Nubank Invests $150 million in Tyme Group
Adyen Expands Partnership with Affirm
Mercado Libre eMarketer Data Drop
Sea Limited Shopee Reports 4x Increase During 12.12 Sale
InPost Partners with Aldi to Trial Parcel Lockers
Evolution Faces UK Gambling Commission Review
1. Nubank (NU) Invests $150 million in Tyme Group
Nubank has announced an investment of $150 million in Tyme Group, leading its Series D funding round. The total round amounted to $250 million, with the M&G Catalyst Fund contributing $50 million and existing shareholders adding another $50 million.
Tyme Group is a fast-growing digital bank with 15 million customers across South Africa and the Philippines. It operates under a hybrid model, combining digital platforms with physical touchpoints (such as kiosks and ambassadors) to better serve emerging markets. The company plans to expand further, leveraging its Singapore headquarters and Vietnam development hub, with Vietnam as its next operational target.
Source: Nubank IR
My Perspective: This is not Nubank’s first investment in another neobank. In 2021, it invested $45 million in the Indian equivalent, Jupiter. As an investor, Nubank brings valuable expertise from scaling its own digital banking model to hundreds of millions of customers globally. Tyme Group stands to benefit not only financially but also from Nubank’s business counsel and insights.
2. Adyen (ADYEN) Expands Partnership with Affirm
Affirm Holdings has deepened its collaboration with Adyen, becoming the first Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) provider to support Adyen for Platforms—a comprehensive payment solution tailored for platform businesses like peer-to-peer marketplaces and on-demand services.
Adyen merchants in Canada now have access to Affirm’s extended offerings, including monthly installment plans alongside existing biweekly payment options. Affirm enables consumers to customize payment plans ranging from six weeks to 36 months, with options as low as 0% APR, and no hidden or late fees.
The Affirm-Adyen partnership has experienced rapid growth, with average annual payment volume increasing more than sevenfold between 2021 and 2023. Adyen highlights the potential of embedded payment solutions, estimating a $185 billion market opportunity for SaaS platforms based on research conducted with Boston Consulting Group.
Source: Adyen IR
My Perspective: The expanded partnership enhances Affirm’s reach and strengthens Adyen’s platform capabilities, empowering merchants with innovative payment solutions. Adyen’s focus on delivering top-tier payment experiences positions this collaboration as a key driver for greater flexibility and growth for global merchants and their customers.
3. Mercado Libre (MELI) eMarketer Data Drop
eMarketer recently published an in-depth analysis of 25 years of Mercado Libre data in Latin America. As many readers know, Mercado Libre is the largest e-commerce platform in the region, achieving over $50 billion in sales in 2024.
By 2026, the platform is projected to account for 30% of all online spending in the region, up from less than 25% in 2022. The company continues to invest billions into its e-commerce and fintech businesses, reinforcing its leadership position across all Latin American markets where it operates.
Source: eMarketer
My Perspective: While Mercado Libre’s stock has faced pressure recently due to Brazil’s economic challenges, this report highlights the company’s long-term growth potential. Over the past 25 years, Mercado Libre has consistently driven economic growth, financial inclusion, and digital transformation in Latin America—and it is well-positioned to continue leading these trends.
4. Sea Limited (SE) Shopee Reports 4x Increase During 12.12 Sale
Shopee reported a fourfold increase in orders and a fivefold surge in sales for Filipino sellers, showcasing the platform's success in driving significant growth for local brands and MSMEs. The sale reinforced Shopee's position as the leading online shopping destination in the Philippines during the holiday season.
Shopee engagement through interactive tools was particularly strong:
Shopee Video: This short-form content feature drove a 14x increase in checkouts during the campaign.
Shopee Live: Real-time interactions led to a 6x increase in checkouts and a 3x rise in viewership, demonstrating its effectiveness in boosting sales.
Shopee Affiliate Program: This initiative enabled a fourfold increase in orders through affiliates, empowering Filipino content creators to promote local products and brands effectively.
Source: Manila Standard
My Perspective: Shopee is estimated to hold a 46% share of the e-commerce market in the Philippines as of the end of 2023. Achieving a fourfold increase in orders and a fivefold surge in sales is quite remarkable given its already dominant market position.
5. InPost (INPST) Partners with Aldi to Trial Parcel Lockers
Aldi is collaborating with InPost to trial parcel lockers at 22 UK stores, allowing customers to collect and return online orders while shopping. This initiative aims to enhance customer convenience by integrating parcel services into the shopping experience, accessible via QR codes. The trial is set to run for 12 weeks, with potential expansion to more locations depending on its success.
Source: Aldi Press Centre
My Perspective: This trial represents an important step for InPost as it continues its rapid expansion in the UK. If successful, the partnership could scale up to over 1,000 Aldi stores across the UK, significantly increasing access to InPost's parcel lockers.
6. Evolution (EVO) Faces UK Gambling Commission Review
The UK Gambling Commission (GC) is reviewing Evolution's operating licence due to its games being provided to unlicensed operators in the UK. Potential outcomes range from no penalty to financial sanctions or even suspension/revocation of its UK licence.
Evolution has responded by removing its games from the illegal website and is cooperating fully with the GC. CEO Martin Carlesund stated that the company is using technical tools to ensure its games are accessible only via licensed operators in the UK. Evolution emphasised its commitment to supporting the licensed UK market and preventing unlicensed activities.
The review follows reports that Evolution provided services to unlicensed Asia-based operators, some linked to UK Premier League teams. Asia accounts for approximately 40% of Evolution’s revenue, but the share of regulated revenue has slightly declined to 39%. Growth in Asia has faced challenges, including increased scrutiny, cyber-attacks, and questions about operations in unregulated markets.
Source: iGamingBusiness
My Perspective: The UK market represents only 3% of Evolution’s revenue, limiting the potential financial impact of enforcement action. However, ongoing scrutiny in Asia could present broader challenges for Evolution’s operations. That said, stricter enforcement across regions could also create opportunities, as Evolution is one of the most compliant suppliers in the market despite its significant revenue from unregulated markets.
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Happy investing
Wolf of Harcourt Street
Contact me
Twitter: @wolfofharcourt
Email: wolfofharcourtstreet@gmail.com
merry christmas
$NU is probably one of the best deals in the market right now. Highest risk to Latam, but def the greatest reward if things work out which it probably will for macro.