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Portfolio PRs's avatar

Uber is executing exceptionally right now, Uber one has an incredible price/value ratio which I can personally atone to, It gives me so much back in direct cost savings and credits that for the price I couldn't imagine cancelling it. I think it has great potential and has long played an important part in my thesis considering the effect it has on increased usage as well as strengthening the moat

Silas's avatar

Hi Wolf,

Been a while!

Great write-up as always. One thing I'd love to hear your thoughts on: the mobility segment did 25% more in gross bookings YoY but only 5% more in revenue (flat in constant currency). You attribute this largely to business model changes and the reinvestment of insurance savings, but a bear would argue that Uber was forced to cut prices to sustain volume growth in an increasingly competitive mobility market - particularly with Waymo now at ~40% rideshare market share in SF and expanding into LA, Phoenix, Austin, Atlanta, and Miami.

Two specific questions:

- If the insurance savings are truly being chosen to reinvest rather than required to remain competitive, why isn't that showing up as margin expansion in mobility specifically rather than just at the consolidated level? Wouldn't a company with pricing power keep some of the savings?

- You highlight that 30% of mobility users haven't tried delivery and frame it as upside optionality. But couldn't you flip that around if cross-sell conversion hasn't happened after years of pushing it, is it really latent demand or just a segment that doesn't want delivery?

Not trying to rain on the parade. I'm genuinely curious how you'd stress-test the bull case against the pricing/take rate compression trend in mobility.

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