Curious if tripling 2025 revenue of $15.8b by 2031 is consistent or not with your NU model revenue growth or analyst expectation for long-term topline? That works out to ~20% cagr excluding new customer adds and their monetization path. When including those, the total growth seems high vs analyst consensus.
Good question. In the financial model I shared last year, I had NU doing $46 billion in 2031. Note that in 2026 NU ARPAC grew much faster than I had forecast. So if I were to re run this entire analysis I would expect my revenue estimate for 2031 to be even higher now given the additional customers and ARPAC curve. Hope that helps to answer your question.
Yes, I've made similar calculations. I suspect the customers with more than 8 years will have an ARPAC of at least a third higher than now and they'll be at least 25% more users in five years time. That's without counting the USA which will be between an embarrassing and costly failure or a success exceeding expectations. I'm about 75% along the success route in my thinking. Plus they'll surely be a market panic or two about lending along the way. Good work!
The potential is enormous, and in plain sight. However people controlling most of the increasingly small proportion of active money will always be conservative. There are very few Nick Sleeps amongst them. Fortune favours the brave........sometimes.
Curious if tripling 2025 revenue of $15.8b by 2031 is consistent or not with your NU model revenue growth or analyst expectation for long-term topline? That works out to ~20% cagr excluding new customer adds and their monetization path. When including those, the total growth seems high vs analyst consensus.
Good question. In the financial model I shared last year, I had NU doing $46 billion in 2031. Note that in 2026 NU ARPAC grew much faster than I had forecast. So if I were to re run this entire analysis I would expect my revenue estimate for 2031 to be even higher now given the additional customers and ARPAC curve. Hope that helps to answer your question.
https://www.thewolfofharcourtstreet.com/p/nu-holdings-2025-financial-model
Yes, I've made similar calculations. I suspect the customers with more than 8 years will have an ARPAC of at least a third higher than now and they'll be at least 25% more users in five years time. That's without counting the USA which will be between an embarrassing and costly failure or a success exceeding expectations. I'm about 75% along the success route in my thinking. Plus they'll surely be a market panic or two about lending along the way. Good work!
I think those are reasonable assumptions. The untapped revenue and earnings potential that NU is sitting on is enormous.
The potential is enormous, and in plain sight. However people controlling most of the increasingly small proportion of active money will always be conservative. There are very few Nick Sleeps amongst them. Fortune favours the brave........sometimes.