Real nice and incisive write-up on Rubrik. Its not the most popular stock, so not much written on it. Always good to find someone analysing this company.
With more than 50% sales growth and Price to sales lower than some other comapnies in Cybersecurity, it kept intriguing me, as to whether or not I should invest.
So I did a detailed research, and captured it on this link.
Have a read and let me know if there is anything that I am missing in your opinion.
Not sure this is accurate. Rubrik disclosed that the fair value of Predibase at acquisition was $109 million. They also reported $93 million of goodwill recognized from the acquisition, bringing the total to $202 million. Only $15 million was paid in cash, with the remainder settled in shares.
Impressive top-line acceleration and margin improvement, but with non-recurring material rights adding ~7 points to revenue growth, how do you see Rubrik sustaining >40% growth once that tailwind fades?
Real nice and incisive write-up on Rubrik. Its not the most popular stock, so not much written on it. Always good to find someone analysing this company.
With more than 50% sales growth and Price to sales lower than some other comapnies in Cybersecurity, it kept intriguing me, as to whether or not I should invest.
So I did a detailed research, and captured it on this link.
Have a read and let me know if there is anything that I am missing in your opinion.
Thanks for the feedback. Please feel free to DM me that link.
Thank you, always!
My pleasure
I think the market didn't like the acquisition price for Predibase. So q2 ends at 31 july, so some data is already included in this q2 report.
We see goodwill jump 95 mil (definitely from that). Cash from investing jump -400 mil, debt jump about 700 mil.
So it's hard to say exactly, at first glance the acquisition seems to be 400 mil, but in that case it would be cheap at just 1.3 PB?
Some internet data says Predibase did 3.8 mil revenue in 2023. Could that be true?
Most realistic case: let's say predibase is at 10mil revenue now. They paid at least 10-15 PS. So 100-150 mil, out of which 95 mil is goodwill.
But then what is the other -250mil from investing? Possibly just unrelated investements?
Not sure this is accurate. Rubrik disclosed that the fair value of Predibase at acquisition was $109 million. They also reported $93 million of goodwill recognized from the acquisition, bringing the total to $202 million. Only $15 million was paid in cash, with the remainder settled in shares.
Oh I see, didn't catch that information about the 109 million. 202 million seems ok-ish, so like 15-20 PS.
The debt, and cashflow from investing values is definitely accurate, I guess it's not related to the acquisition then.
Impressive top-line acceleration and margin improvement, but with non-recurring material rights adding ~7 points to revenue growth, how do you see Rubrik sustaining >40% growth once that tailwind fades?
I don't see it growing >40%, my forward assumptions for FY27 and beyond lower.
Good analysis! Very surprising to see the 20% drop after raising guidance like that
Thank you. Indeed, the market can behave irrationally.