Revisiting your quick pitch on Uber, I’ve been digging into Lyft - and I think it now offers a very similar risk/reward setup to what Uber had in the $60s.
Lyft recently reported its first full year of GAAP profitability and strong free cash flow (~$766M), with margins expanding and rides and active riders at all-time highs.
Of course there are risks (competition, AV disruption), but the setup feels very similar: an underappreciated turnaround with operating leverage just starting to show - plus near-term catalysts like upcoming earnings.
I looked at Lyft briefly, but it doesn't interest me even if it's relatively cheaper than Uber. In situations like this, I prefer to invest in the company that will dominate the space, and for me, that's Uber.
Uber has seven times as many active users as Lyft and completes 14 times more trips. What's more, Uber is expected to grow revenue faster than Lyft over the coming years, despite operating at a much larger scale.
Hi, this is a very good article, thank you. Do you think it’s possible for Uber to mitigate the risk associated with AVs by acquiring a stake in an existing AV manufacturing company? I believe Uber could and should consider deploying its growing FCF into such a venture to strengthen its position.
Thanks a lot for the feedback. I think there are a couple of ways Uber could navigate this risk and that is certainly an option. One point I didn’t include in the article is that Dara Khosrowshahi is an exceptional CEO, despite not being the original founder. If we’re aware of this risk I can only imagine him spending a lot of time obsessing about it too.
Hopefully yes! Regarding management I still wait for some buying activity from them. I am not sure but it seems their are net sellers. Do you thing their incentives are set well?
I missed this earlier, so I apologize for the delayed response. The high level of SBC is likely why they are not buying shares on the open market.
Regarding the incentives, they are based on financial targets (60% weight), such as Gross Bookings and Adjusted EBITDA, and operational targets (40% weight), including Uber One Membership, culture, and category positioning. While I don’t think these are the worst incentives, I’ve definitely seen better ones.
Hi Wolf,
Revisiting your quick pitch on Uber, I’ve been digging into Lyft - and I think it now offers a very similar risk/reward setup to what Uber had in the $60s.
Lyft recently reported its first full year of GAAP profitability and strong free cash flow (~$766M), with margins expanding and rides and active riders at all-time highs.
Of course there are risks (competition, AV disruption), but the setup feels very similar: an underappreciated turnaround with operating leverage just starting to show - plus near-term catalysts like upcoming earnings.
Have you looked at Lyft while analysing Uber?
Hi Silas,
I looked at Lyft briefly, but it doesn't interest me even if it's relatively cheaper than Uber. In situations like this, I prefer to invest in the company that will dominate the space, and for me, that's Uber.
Uber has seven times as many active users as Lyft and completes 14 times more trips. What's more, Uber is expected to grow revenue faster than Lyft over the coming years, despite operating at a much larger scale.
strong and logical thesis
Let's see how it unfolds. Risk/reward does appear favourable from here though.
Hi, this is a very good article, thank you. Do you think it’s possible for Uber to mitigate the risk associated with AVs by acquiring a stake in an existing AV manufacturing company? I believe Uber could and should consider deploying its growing FCF into such a venture to strengthen its position.
Thanks a lot for the feedback. I think there are a couple of ways Uber could navigate this risk and that is certainly an option. One point I didn’t include in the article is that Dara Khosrowshahi is an exceptional CEO, despite not being the original founder. If we’re aware of this risk I can only imagine him spending a lot of time obsessing about it too.
Hopefully yes! Regarding management I still wait for some buying activity from them. I am not sure but it seems their are net sellers. Do you thing their incentives are set well?
I missed this earlier, so I apologize for the delayed response. The high level of SBC is likely why they are not buying shares on the open market.
Regarding the incentives, they are based on financial targets (60% weight), such as Gross Bookings and Adjusted EBITDA, and operational targets (40% weight), including Uber One Membership, culture, and category positioning. While I don’t think these are the worst incentives, I’ve definitely seen better ones.