The market wants uninterrupted growth. This is what creates a lot of opportunity.
5 year cagr of 15% steady: PE of 35
5 year cagr of 15% front loaded first 3 years: PE of 8
(just some random numbers, but probably not too far from what usually happens)
The question is always only one of course: what about the next 5-10 years. I still think the price vs potential is very solid in this (don't actually own it, had thought for a while but too many opportunities out there)
Cyclicals definitely create a lot of opportunity, but I don't think cyclicality is at play here. I believe I've outlined my rationale for selling quite comprehensively. Low single-digit growth coupled with significant margin compression was not part of my original investment thesis.
As you mentioned, what matters now is the future. At this point, I’m not able to say with any degree of certainty that growth will accelerate and margins will expand, so I’m happy to pull out my capital relatively unscathed on an approximate dollar (PLN) basis. I’ll continue to follow the company, as there will be clear signs if and when both of these catalysts emerge.
Your original thesis didn't prove to be correct. The important thing is that you realised that, sold and moved on. It happens. No big deal when your winners are big.
The market wants uninterrupted growth. This is what creates a lot of opportunity.
5 year cagr of 15% steady: PE of 35
5 year cagr of 15% front loaded first 3 years: PE of 8
(just some random numbers, but probably not too far from what usually happens)
The question is always only one of course: what about the next 5-10 years. I still think the price vs potential is very solid in this (don't actually own it, had thought for a while but too many opportunities out there)
Cyclicals definitely create a lot of opportunity, but I don't think cyclicality is at play here. I believe I've outlined my rationale for selling quite comprehensively. Low single-digit growth coupled with significant margin compression was not part of my original investment thesis.
As you mentioned, what matters now is the future. At this point, I’m not able to say with any degree of certainty that growth will accelerate and margins will expand, so I’m happy to pull out my capital relatively unscathed on an approximate dollar (PLN) basis. I’ll continue to follow the company, as there will be clear signs if and when both of these catalysts emerge.
Your original thesis didn't prove to be correct. The important thing is that you realised that, sold and moved on. It happens. No big deal when your winners are big.
Agree John, managed to come out relatively unscathed although the opportunity cost was real.