Welcome back to the Wolf of Harcourt Street Newsletter.
Every month, I'll provide you with an update on my portfolio, including all of the transactions, the current allocation, and my buy list. In addition, I'll share a recap of the articles you may have missed from the previous month.
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Transactions
Take-Two Interactive (TTWO)
After initiating my position in TTWO in May, I doubled it in June. The thesis is already beginning to play out. Hype is building, and the stock has climbed into double digit gains.
Pre-orders for GTA VI opened on 25 June. While there has been no official announcement from TTWO, analysts estimate the game generated up to $1 billion in pre-orders within its first hour. Several outlets are also reporting that GTA VI has now surpassed 50 million pre-orders worldwide, representing roughly $4 billion in revenue.
Perhaps most impressively, all of this has happened before TTWO has even launched its official marketing campaign.
If you missed my TTWO Quick Pitch, you can check it out below.
Microsoft (MSFT)
I increased my position in MSFT as the stock continued to trade below $400.
Current sentiment reminds me a lot of GOOG last year, and we all know how that turned out. At roughly 20x forward earnings, Microsoft looks reasonably valued for a business of this quality, if not outright cheap.
Amazon (AMZN)
I also added to AMZN as the stock gave back most of its gains and now trades roughly flat for the year.
Last week, reports emerged that AWS will increase prices on GPU instances by 20% from 1 July, following a 15% increase in January. I view this as a very bullish signal.
To me, these price increases suggest AWS remains capacity constrained rather than simply expanding margins. Demand continues to outstrip supply.
SouthernValue published an excellent analysis on what this means for hyperscaler returns on invested capital and the broader AI demand outlook, which I’ve linked below.
Allocation
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Performance
Q2: +15.9% vs. S&P +18.2%
YTD: -3.9% vs. S&P +9.5%
Top Contributors YTD:
ASML: +82%
TTWO: +16%
ABBV: +10%
RBRK: +6%
AMZN: +4%
Largest Detractors:
ADYEN: -43%
MSFT: -27%
SE: -26%
NU: -19%
META: -16%
Buy List
Mercado Libre (MELI)
MELI was my largest position by a considerable margin until very recently. After ASML’s remarkable 200%+ rally over the past 12 months, it has now overtaken MELI as my largest holding.
While the stock has significantly underperformed the broader market over the past year, it’s important to separate the share price from the underlying business. Fundamentally, MELI continues to execute exceptionally well.
Take Mercado Pago as an example. Annual revenue has grown from $5.0 billion in 2022 to $12.6 billion in 2025, representing a roughly 36% CAGR. That’s faster than almost every global fintech peer, despite already operating at enormous scale.
The chart below ranks the world’s fastest growing financial institutions by annual revenue, with Mercado Pago sitting comfortably at the top.
Take-Two Interactive (TTWO)
When I pitched TTWO in May, I explained that I wanted to build the position ahead of several catalysts that I believed were imminent.
So far, that thesis has played out exactly as expected.
Even after the recent rally, I’d still like to increase the position to around 6% of the portfolio before the excitement surrounding GTA VI reaches full swing.
In Case You Missed It
Some of the articles you might have missed during the past month:
Final Words
Q2 was an excellent quarter for the portfolio, even though I continue to trail the market on a year to date basis.
I’m optimistic about future returns because several of my largest positions, including MELI, SE, NU and MSFT, remain out of favour despite strong underlying fundamentals.
I also came across an interesting chart from the Financial Times that feels particularly relevant given that META, MSFT and AMZN account for roughly 25% of my portfolio.
Forecasts should always be treated with caution, but the market is clearly expecting a meaningful acceleration in free cash flow once today’s heavy AI infrastructure spending begins to moderate. Over the long run, share prices tend to follow free cash flow per share.
That outlook also aligns with the AWS GPU price increases discussed earlier. If hyperscalers are confident enough to continue raising prices, it suggests demand remains exceptionally strong.
The biggest question is how much capital expenditure will eventually normalise. If returns on AI investments remain attractive, why would companies dramatically reduce spending in 2028? It’s a classic chicken and egg problem.
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Happy investing
Wolf of Harcourt Street
Contact me
Twitter: @wolfofharcourt
Email: wolfofharcourtstreet@gmail.com